基于SPA-MC耦合模型的陕西省水环境生态安全水平动态评价

Dynamic assessment of water environment ecological security level in Shaanxi province based on SPA-MC model

水环境生态安全与一个区域生态系统的良性循环息息相关。为了对陕西省水环境生态安全水平进行合理评价,结合陕西省水生态现状,基于DPSBR概念模型构建水生态安全水平评价体系,采用SPA-MC(集对分析—马尔科夫链)耦合模型对陕西省2000—2017年水环境安全状况进行了动态评价,并提出适应性建议。结果表明:陕西省2000—2017年水环境生态安全水平整体上呈现先升高后降低的趋势,2001—2010年明显升高,2011—2017年降低;2010—2012年安全水平最高,为“较安全”水平,2001、2002年安全水平最低,为“较不安全”水平;层级水平上,“生态压力”和“生态基础”对陕西省水环境生态安全水平的影响最大,指标水平上“水资源开发利用率”与“水土保持面积”的影响最大;预测陕西省2018—2025年水环境生态安全水平将长期处于“临界安全”状态,且逐步向“较安全”水平转变。重视水土保持工作和水污染防治工作,是持续改善陕西省水环境生态安全状况的重要举措。研究成果对陕西省水环境的有效保护以及生态建设政策的制定具有指导意义。

The ecological safety of water environment is closely related to the virtuous cycle of a region's ecosystem.In order to make a reasonable assessment of the ecological safety level of water environment in Shaanxi Province,combined with the current situation of water ecology in Shaanxi Province,a water ecological safety level evaluation system was constructed based on the DPSBR model.And the SPA-MC(Set Pair Analysis-Markov Chain)coupling model was used to dynamically evaluate the water environment safety situation in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2017,and adaptive suggestions are put forward.The results show that the ecological safety level of water environment in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2017 showed an overall trend of increasing first and then decreasing.It increased significantly from 2001 to 2010 and decreased from 2011 to 2017;the highest level of security was from 2010 to 2012,which was"safety"level,the lowest level of safety in 2001 and 2002,which is the"less safe"level.At the hierarchical level,"ecological pressure"and"ecological foundation"had the greatest impact on the level of ecological safety of the water environment in Shaanxi Province.Among all the indicators,"the utilization ratio of water resources"and"soil and water conservation area" had the greatest impact on the water ecological security level of Shaanxi Province. It is predicted that the water environment ecological security level of Shaanxi Province from 2018 to 2025 will remain in a state of "critical safety" for a long time from 2018 to 2025, and will gradually change to "safer" state. Attaching importance to soil and water conservation and water pollution prevention is an important measure to continuously improve the ecological security of the water environment in Shaanxi Province. This study has guiding significance for the effective protection of water environment and the formulation of ecological construction policy in Shaanxi Province.