从就学需求预测小学校舍空间更新——以西安市曲江新区为例

Predicting Space Renewal in Primary Schools Based on Demands for Schooling:A case Study based on the Qujiang New District in Xi'an

随着城镇化进程的推进以及新生育政策的实施,城市新区居住人口快速增长,出现了就学需求激增现象,造成既有中小学校空间超载和品质下降,如何指导既有学校空间更新成为亟待解决的问题。以就学需求预测为视角,分析城市新区就学需求激增的成因和学校空间环境特点,通过相关性分析,明确影响就学需求的四大因素,构建就学需求预测模型。通过模型计算就学需求预测指标,精准施策,指导既有学校空间潜力挖掘和更新,促进城市新区小学校舍空间科学发展。

With progress in urbanization and the implementation of new childbearing policies,the residential population in new urban districts has increased quickly,which brings a sharp growth in demands for schooling.Because education support facilities in new urban districts usually lag behind demands,existing school spaces become overloaded,space quality decreases,and sites for student activities decrease.As a result,teaching quality and students'physical and psychological health are affected.At the school level,scientific forecasting of demands for schooling is beneficial for implementing specific policies in accordance with local conditions.Schools in regions with sharp growth in schooling demands are planned scientifically,rather than being blindly constructed,to meet space development and capacity requirements.At the planning management level,scientific forecasting of demands for schooling is conducive to scientific planning and layout of schools and promotes a balance between demands for schooling and school capacity within the relevant district.In new urban districts,how to explore the space potentials of existing schools based on demands for high-quality schooling becomes a problem that must be solved urgently.Existing studies in China have not fully considered the influences of residential building types and house structures on district schooling demands.Moreover,there is a lack of studies on how to guide schools in space renewal according to forecasting indices of demands for schooling.In this study,first the causes of the sharp growth in demand for schooling in new urban districts and the space environmental characteristics of schools were analyzed from the perspective of forecasting.A field survey was done of residential communities within the scope of the QJDY Primary School in Qujiang New District in Xi'an City.Statistics on residential building types,building age,building area,building floors,house structure,and the number of primary school students per family in those communities were gathered,which provided data support for quantitative modeling of demands for schooling.Quantitative modeling is the core step to predicting schooling demand.Using the survey data,correlation analysis of influencing factors was done using SAS analytics software.Four key factors that influence demands for schools were determined:residential location,residential building type,building age,and house structure.Influencing factors were measured and analyzed by using a multilinear regression method and a principal-component regression method.Weight coefficients of various influencing factors were determined,and models were established preliminarily.After the goodness of fit was approved,a quantitative model for predicting demands for schooling was created.In the face of the dual pressures of continuous growth in demand for schooling but no increase in land area,how to increase capacity and improve the quality of school spaces scientifically is the key to solving those problems.A case study based on the QJDY Primary School was done,and the peak demands for schooling in the next few years were then forecast quantitatively using the constructed model.In that way,quantitative capacity-increase indices were formed to guide schools in exploring spatial potential and renewal and promoting the scientific development of primary school spaces in new urban districts.