第三类新古典现实主义视阈下的英 国脱欧:动因、进程与前景

Motivation,Process and Prospect of Brexit from the Perspective of the Type III Neoclassical Realism

2020年1月,英国正式脱欧,成为国际关系领域著名的黑天鹅事件。然而,英国成功脱欧都不是一个“最终结果”,而是一个新的开始。英国的成功脱欧无疑是欧洲一体化的重大挫折,但对英国来说是福是祸,还是祸福相依,都值得探讨。第三类新古典现实主义为探究英国脱欧的动因、进程与前景提供了独特的理论视角和研究路径。英国脱欧既是英国与欧盟之间一系列政策互动的结果,也是双方根据自身利益不断博弈的过程。英国脱欧后不再是欧盟单一市场和关税联盟的一部分,需要和欧盟谈判并形成一项新的自由贸易协定。

The UK officially left the EU at the end of January 2020,which was a famous black swan event in international relations.However,whether for the UK,the EU or even the international community,Brexit is not a“final result”,but a new beginning.Brexit is undoubtedly a major setback for European integration,but whether it is a blessing,a curse,or a mixed blessing for the UK is worth exploring.This Type III Neoclassical Realism provides a unique theoretical basis and research path for exploring the motivation,process and prospect of Brexit.Brexit is a comprehensive and integral process of a series of policies between the UK and the EU.The UK will no longer be part of the EU single market and customs union after Brexit and will need to negotiate a new free trade agreement with the EU.