0-3岁托育需求影响因素研究:基于对市场与政府的期望

Study on Influencing Factors of 0-3-year-old Childcare Demand:Based on Expectations of the Market and Government

2016年的全面二孩政策实施效果不及预期,我国的低生育水平难以改善。生育率的高低与生育意愿息息相关,随着三孩政策的出台,幼儿的托育困境作为制约广大群众生育意愿的重要因素亟需得到关注。运用武汉市3岁以下婴幼儿父母问卷调查数据,构建二元Logit模型研究群众因素、市场因素和政府因素与家庭托育需求之间的关系。研究发现:家庭结构、家庭收入、孩子年龄、影响工作程度,母亲受教育程度,托育市场的经济性、便利性和质量以及政府的政策支持会显著影响家庭的托育需求。基于实证结果,提出政策建议:推动托育服务供给主体多元化,促进托育服务规范化发展,发展普惠性公共托育服务,提升托育服务便利性,增强家庭抚育能力。

The implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016 was not as effective as expected,making it difficult to improve the low fertility level in China. The level of fertility is closely related to the fertility intention. With the introduction of the three-child policy,it is urgent to solve the dilemma of childcare and improve the fertility intention of the masses. Based on the questionnaire survey data of parents of infants under 3 years old in Wuhan,this paper constructs a binary logit model to study the relationship between mass factors,market factors,government factors and family care needs. The study has found that family structure,family income,child age,the influence degree of the work and mother’s education level,the economy,convenience and quality of the nursery market and government policy support will significantly affect the family’s nursery needs. Based on the empirical results,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the diversification of providers of childcare services,promote the standardized development of childcare services,develop inclusive public childcare services,improve the convenience of childcare services,and enhance the ability of family rearing.