中国畜禽产品市场空间关联及其影响因素

Spatial correlation and influencing factors of livestock and poultry products market in China

为探究中国畜禽产品市场空间关联特征及其原因,以猪肉和鸡肉为例,运用Diebold和Yilmaz提出的关联测度新方法测度了畜禽产品市场空间关联水平及其时变特征,在此基础上运用社会网络分析法刻画畜禽产品市场空间关联网络特征,并通过QAP分析考察影响畜禽产品市场空间关联的主要因素。结果表明:①中国畜禽产品市场总体空间关联水平较高,且近年来整体呈上升趋势,其中,相比于鸡肉市场,猪肉市场总体空间关联水平更高,但鸡肉市场总体空间关联水平上升幅度更大。②中国畜禽产品市场空间关联呈现出多线程、复杂的网络结构,空间关联网络较为紧密,与鸡肉市场相比,猪肉市场空间关联网络更为紧密,不同省份在畜禽产品市场的中角色和地位不同。其中,中东部畜禽产品主销区和主产区在空间关联网络中处于中心地位,扮演着中心行动者角色,而西部偏远地区省份,在网络中影响力较小,处于从属和边缘地位。③市场邻接、市场距离以及产区势力是影响畜禽产品市场空间关联的主要因素。此外,市场化程度对猪肉市场空间关联同样有显著影响。

In order to explore the characteristics and reasons of spatial correlation of livestock and poultry products market in China,this paper selects pork and chicken as representatives of products,and measured the spatial correlation level and spatio-temporal characteristics situation of market based on the price data of pork and chicken in each province.Then,the social network analysis method was used to describe the characteristics of the spatial association network of livestock and poultry market,and the main factors affecting the spatial association of livestock and poultry products were investigated through QAP analysis.The results show that,(1)total spatial correlation level of livestock and poultry products market in China was high,with an increasing trend.The total spatial correlation level of pork market was higher,but the increment in total spatial correlation level of chicken market was higher.(2)The spatial relationship of pork market and chicken market presented a multi-threaded and complex network structure,characterized by relatively close,highly related and stable as a whole,while the spatial relationship network of pork market was closer.Different provinces had different roles and positions in the market of livestock and poultry products.Among them,the main sales areas and production areas of products in the eastern and central regions of China played a critical part in the spatial connection network,as a bridge and a transmission line,while the remote provinces in the western region had less influence in the network,and were in a subordinate and marginal position.(3)Geographical proximity,market distance,market power were the main factors that can determine and affect the spatial correlation of livestock and poultry products market.In addition,the degree of marketization also had a significant impact on the spatial correlation of pork market.