土地财政如何影响土地利用效率?——基于规模与技术视角的动态空间杜宾模型检验

How does land finance affect land use efficiency?Dynamic space Durbin model test based on the perspective of scale and technology

中国的土地财政体现了增长目标短期化下的发展模式。考虑到土地财政对土地利用效率的影响具有系统性、复杂性的特征,本文将土地利用效率分解为土地规模效率和土地技术效率,并基于2004—2017年中国281个地级及以上城市数据,运用空间杜宾模型对其影响机理与空间溢出效应进行实证检验。结果表明:①土地财政与土地规模效率之间具有“倒U型”特征。无论是短期还是长期,土地财政对土地规模效率均存在显著的“由促转抑”的直接影响和空间溢出效应,并且长期效应较之短期更明显。②土地财政与土地技术效率之间存在“正U型”关系。无论是短期还是长期,土地财政对土地技术效率均存在显著的“由抑转促”的直接影响和空间溢出效应,并且这种促进作用是财政科技支出所致,尤其是长期效应较之短期更明显。③房地产投资在土地财政影响土地规模效率中的调节效应为负,在土地财政影响土地技术效率中的调节效应为正;产业结构升级在土地财政影响土地利用效率中的调节效应为正。以上研究结论为优化土地财政收支、加强土地产权保护、健全官员长效考核制度、加快产业结构转型升级以及消化房地产过度繁荣带来的发展压力等提供了经验证据。

China's land finance reflects the development mode of short-term growth target.Considering that the impact of land finance on land use efficiency is systematic and complex,this paper decomposes land use efficiency into land scale efficiency and land technical efficiency.Based on the data of 281 cities in China from 2004 to 2017,this paper uses spatial Durbin model to empirically test its impact mechanism and spatial spillover effect.The results show that:Firstly,there is an inverted U-shaped feature between land finance and land scale efficiency.Whether in the short-term or long-term,the land finance has a significant direct impact and spatial spillover effect of changing from promotion to inhibition on land scale efficiency,and the long-term effect is more obvious than the short-term effect.Secondly,there is a positive U-shaped relationship between land finance and land technical efficiency.Whether in the short-term or the long-term,the land finance has a significant direct impact and spatial spillover effect of changing from inhibition to promotion on land technical efficiency,and this promotion effect,especially the long-term effect,is caused by the financial science and technology expenditure.Thirdly,real estate investment has negative moderating effect in the impact of land finance on land scale efficiency;however it has positive moderating effect in the impact of land finance on land technical efficiency;industrial structure has positive moderating effect in the impact of land finance on land use efficiency.The above conclusions provide empirical evidence for optimizing land finance revenue and expenditure,strengthening the protection of land property rights,improving the long-term assessment system for officials,accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and digesting the development pressure brought by the excessive prosperity of real estate.