重大事故影响下的工人社区衰退机制与韧性——基于过滤理论的分析

The decline and resilience of worker community under the influence of accidents:Based on filtering theory

本研究基于社区衰退的过滤理论,建立重大事故影响下的社区衰退过滤机制概念模型,以南京市N社区为例,运用问卷调查、访谈、文本分析以及结构方程模型等方法,证明了社区衰退与过滤之间存在的自我强化以及相互强化的螺旋式反馈作用。内部机制上,社区衰退、邻里过滤既是环境感知的原因,又是行动决策的结果,满意度、忠诚度在环境感知和行动决策之间起中介作用;风险感知越强烈,社区依恋越低,迁居意愿更强,重大事故经历加深了事故背景内化程度。外部机制上,社区衰退与邻里过滤建立在低收入群体与住房市场变化的基础之上;重大事故对地区房价带来直接冲击。本研究综合考虑经济社会慢性压力和生产事故突发性冲击对社区的影响,从影响居民决策的微观视角出发,剖析了重大事故影响下社区衰退的过滤机制,是对社区衰退研究的新探索。同时,从激发“呼吁”这一行动决策角度,提出社区忠诚度培育有助于工人社区抵抗多重压力扰动、提升社区韧性。

Worker communities,as the living area of the work unit(danwei),had been suffering the physical and societal decline since state-owned enterprise reform and industrial structure adjustment in China.The resident replacement that high income groups moved out while lower groups moved in had taken place,which was called filtering.Worker communities should enhance their resilience to struggle over shocks and avoid declining.The filtering theory of community decline indicated that decline and filtering positively strengthen each other,which led to a downward spiral.However,the theory only focused on the gradual decline of the community but ignored the influence of accidents.For worker community which was adjacent to chemical factory,the shocks included not only gradual events such as creaking infrastructure,but also emergencies such as industrial accidents.Given this,the study established a conceptual model of community decline,which integrated the influence of accidents into the filtering theory.Taking N community as a case,which had been disconnected from the unit and encountered several chemical explosion accidents,this paper applied questionnaire surveys,interviews,text analysis and structural equation model to discuss the interaction mechanism of decline and filtering.The results showed that the decline of the community was the result of a combination of factors within and outside the community:(1)For the internal mechanisms,decline and filtering were both the cause of environmental perception which includes the perception of physical environment and community mobility,and the result of action decision-making,including voice and exit.Positive environmental perception promoted satisfaction and loyalty,which in turn influenced action decisions.The stronger the risk perception,the lower the level of community attachment in loyalty,and the more the residents are likely to leave.Besides,rick experiences moderated the influence of risk perception on satisfaction and the influence of community attachment on satisfaction.(2)For the external mechanisms,decline and filtering were affected by low-income groups and the entire housing market,which were also influenced by the accident.Considering both gradual and sudden factors,this research established the filtering mechanism of community decline under the influence of accidents from a micro perspective of residents'decision making and it was a new exploration of community decline research.Finally,aiming at enhancing community resilience to resist multiple shocks,this study proposed suggestions for improving residents'community loyalty,and encouraging more community participation.