突发事件分析的EOC概念模型

EOC model: A conceptual model to analyze emergencies

突发事件包含信息类型繁多,内在逻辑复杂。为解决突发事件分析领域缺乏支持信息结构化表达方法的问题,该文提出一种针对突发事件分析的框架模型——要素-对象-结果(EOC)模型。EOC模型首先定义突发事件包含的"要素""对象""结果""环境""响应与管理"和"情景"6个基本概念,然后在关联上述6个概念组成成分的基础上构建突发事件分析框架,实现从概念和数学上对突发事件进行分析和呈现。火灾案例研究表明:EOC模型能够辅助实现突发事件相关信息从非结构化、半结构化到结构化的分析、表达和存储,并实现定性和定量呈现突发事件发展全过程。

Emergencies include various types of information that have very complex internal logic structures. This paper presents an emergency analysis model, element-object-consequence(EOC) model, for information frames that lack structured information expressions for emergency information analyses. The EOC model uses the basic concepts of “element”, “object”, “consequence”, “environment”, “response and management” and “scenario” to organize the emergency information. The model then uses conceptual and mathematical analyses and presentations with frameworks based on these six concepts. A case study shows that this model provides analyses, expressions and storage of information from unstructured, semi-structured and structured sources, as well as qualitative and quantitative presentations of the entire emergency development process.