韶关市近50年干旱与烟草需水量变化特征研究

A Study on Drought and Tobacco Evapotranspiration in Shaoguan City in Recent 50 Years

基于1971-2020年韶关市8个气象观测站逐日气象数据,计算不同时间尺度标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),并采用MMK趋势检验和作物系数法等方法,研究了近50年韶关地区干旱与烟草需水量变化特征。结果表明:①2000s后,韶关的干旱程度有增强的趋势,且年干旱影响范围在不断扩大;②从空间分布来看,年干旱发生频率总体呈“北多南少”的分布规律,韶关曲江是季节尺度干旱事件易发生地;③韶关地区的干旱化主要由气温和降水共同作用,其中降水占主导因素;④韶关南雄烟草生长期需水量以5.98 mm/10a的速率显著递增,与SPEI指数呈负相关。总的来看,韶关市干旱渐趋严重,且呈四季干旱多发,中部受灾严重以及春冬季易旱涝急转的特征。其中韶关南雄由于干旱化有加剧趋势,需特别在烟草生长期内做好水资源配置和规划管理工作。

Based on the daily data of 8 meteorological stations in Shaoguan City from 1971 to 2020,SPEI drought index,MMK test and crop coefficient method were used to analyze the variation characteristics of drought and tobacco evapotranspiration in the city.The results showed that:①The degree of drought and drought affected areas was increasing after 2000;②The frequency of drought in the north was larger than that in the south.And droughts occurred more frequently in Qujiang in four seasons;③The drought in Shaoguan City was mainly caused by air temperature and precipitation,and precipitation was the dominant factor;④The water requirement of tobacco in Nanxiong increased at the rate of 5.98mm/10a,which was negatively correlated with SPEI drought index.In general,the drought in Shaoguan City was becoming more severe,which was characterized by frequent occurrence in all year round,severe disaster in midlands and sudden changing from drought to waterlogging in spring and winter.Because of the intensification of drought in Nanxiong,it’s necessary to focus on water resources allocation and planning management during tobacco growth stages.