基于VAR模型的中国棉花价格波动及影响因素分析

Analyses on the Price Fluctuation and Influencing Factors of Chinese Cotton Based on VAR Model

目前棉花价格受供需关系及国家政策宏观调控的影响,波动幅度较大。为此,利用2000—2019年的数据,从内部冲击与外部传导2个角度分别选取了棉花产量、棉花生产成本、美元汇率及棉花进口数量等变量构建向量自回归模型,分析各因素对棉花价格的影响,判断各因素对我国棉花价格的冲击效应与贡献程度。结果表明:从长期看,我国棉花价格与各影响因素之间存在长期均衡平衡关系;从影响程度来看,汇率对棉花价格影响最显著,棉花产量和棉花生产成本次之,棉花进口数量影响最小。基于研究结论,提出加大对棉花产业的扶持、加强棉花进口的管理与降低棉花生产成本等建议。

Cotton is not only the raw material for textile exports,but also a military strategic reserve material.At present,being have received the influence of the supply and demand relationship and the national policy macro-control,the cotton price fluctuates greatly.Using the data of 2000-2019,we select the variables of cotton yield,cotton production cost,US dollar exchange rate and the amount of cotton import to construct the vector autoregression model for analyzing the impact of each factor on cotton price,and judging the impact effect and contribution of each factor to cotton price in China.Results show:in the long run,there is a long-term equilibrium and balance relationship between the national cotton price and the influencing factors.From the degree of impact,the exchange rate has the most significant impact on cotton prices,followed by cotton production and cotton production cost.The amount of cotton imports has the least impact on cotton prices.Based on the research conclusion,we propose to increase the support for cotton industry,strengthen the management of cotton imports and reduce the cotton production cost.