新老年抚养比调整指数视角下的中日韩老龄化比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Population Aging of China,Japan and South Korea:from the Perspective of a New Elderly Dependency Ratio Index

基于一种考虑老年人健康状况和劳动力教育水平的新老年抚养比指数方法,对中国、日本和韩国的老龄化问题做了全面的比较分析。研究表明,与日本和韩国相比,中国的人口老龄化在步入老龄化社会的初期并没有日本和韩国那么严重,但是老年人口系数的增速即老龄化的速度越来越快,呈现出更加快速老龄化的特点;从新老年抚养比指数的角度看,在考虑教育和健康因素后,日本和韩国养老负担的下降比中国多,这说明中国老龄化实际带来的养老负担比日本和韩国更重,也意味着如果不综合考虑教育和健康方面的因素,传统老年抚养比指数可能会低估老龄化对发展中国家带来的影响;从劳动力的教育水平来看,中国在高等教育普及上取得了较大的成就,但劳动力整体受教育水平与日本和韩国相比仍然有较大的差距。中国加快普及高等教育将会成为应对人口老龄化的一项有效措施。

Based on the new elderly dependency ratio index method considering the health status of the elderly and the level of labor education,this paper makes a comprehensive comparative analysis of the aging problems in China,Japan and South Korea.The results show that:(1)compared with Japan and South Korea,China’s population aging in the early stage of entering the aging society is not as serious as Japan and South Korea,but the growth rate of the ratio of the elderly population,that is,the aging speed is faster and faster,showing a more rapid aging characteristics.(2)From the perspective of the new elderly dependency ratio index,after considering the factors of education and health,Japan and South Korea’s pension burden dropped more than China’s,which shows that China’s aging actually brings more pension burden than Japan and South Korea.This also means that if education and health factors are not taken into account,the traditional elderly dependency ratio index may underestimate the impact of aging on developing countries.(3)In terms of the education level of the labor force,China has made great achievements in the popularization of higher education,but compared with Japan and South Korea,the overall education level of the labor force is still far behind.Accelerating the popularization of higher education in China will become an effective measure to cope with the aging population.