变化环境下的径流演变与影响研究:回顾与展望

Studies on runoff evolution mechanism under changing environment:a state-of-the-art review

气候变化和人类活动影响下的流域水循环过程发生了深刻的变化,认识和把握变化环境下的流域径流变化规律及演变机理成为当前水文科学研究领域的热点和难点问题。归纳和总结了近十几年来的相关研究成果,从流域径流演变特征识别、流域径流变化归因分析、变化环境下流域径流模拟、未来气候变化背景下的径流响应规律及其预估4个方面梳理了流域径流演变相关研究的主要内容、方法及其进展,并就当前研究中的难点和不足,提出今后在径流演变特征的认识、径流影响因素定量化、径流模拟及其不确定性度量等方面亟待深入开展研究的工作。

Processes of hydrological cycle and distribution of water resources have been changing significantly under the driving of climate changes.To fully understand runoff evolution mechanism under changing environment has become one of the hot and difficult issues in the field of hydrological research.In this study,state-of-the-art on related studies during the past decades has been reviewed and summarized,which includes major methodologies and progresses on the mechanism of runoff evolution,i.e.,identification of runoff variation characteristics,attribution analysis of runoff changes,simulation of runoff under changing environment,and response of runoff to future climate change.Further studies are then emphasized considering those issues related to runoff evolution and its driving factors,identification of impact factors on runoff changes,as well as runoff simulation and uncertainty analysis,etc.