产业政策对长江经济带物流产业集聚的影响:基于空间杜宾模型和面板门限模型的实证分析

Influence of industrial policy on logistics industry agglomeration in the Yangtze River economic belt:An empirical analysis based on spatial Dobbin model and panel threshold model

基于2004—2018年的相关数据,建立空间杜宾模型和面板门限模型,实证分析了产业政策对长江经济带物流产业集聚的影响效应。研究表明,财政政策、产业结构优化政策对物流产业集聚水平具有显著影响,并且随着经济发展水平的提高,两种政策的影响效应逐渐增强。环境规制政策短期内会抑制物流产业集聚,但长期内严格的环境管控更有利于促进物流产业集聚发展。基础设施建设和制造业集聚水平对物流产业集聚有促进作用,并且制造业集聚发展的拉动作用最为明显。建议沿江省市以提高经济发展水平为中心,以财政政策、产业结构优化政策和环境规制政策创新为重点,同时,加强基础设施建设,提升制造业集聚发展水平,推动物流产业集聚发展。

Based on the relevant data from 2004 to 2018,in this paper,the Spatial Dubin Model and the panel threshold model were established to empirically analyze the impact of industrial policies on logistics industry agglomeration in the Yangtze River economic belt,the results show that:(1)fiscal policy and industrial structure optimization policy significantly influences the level of logistics industry agglomeration,and with the improvement of economic development,the effect of the two systems is gradually strengthened;(2)environmental regulation policy restrains the agglomeration of the logistics industry in the short term,but in the long term strict environmental control is more conducive to the development of logistics industry agglomeration;(3)the infrastructure construction and manufacturing agglomeration level remarkable promote the logistics agglomeration,and the function of the manufacturing agglomeration development is most obvious.It is suggested that the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt should focus on raising the level of economic development and innovating fiscal,industrial structure optimization,and environmental regulation policies.At the same time,the provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt should strengthen the construction of infrastructure and raise the level of manufacturing agglomeration development,so as to boost the development of logistics industry agglomeration.