基于价值模型的汽车供应链风险评估

Risk Assessment of Automotive Supply Chain Based on Value Model

汽车供应链具有产业链条长、网络节点企业协同程度高、辐射范围广等特点,在市场环境多变、行业竞争激烈的背景下,其供应链网络的稳定性更易受到各种外部事件的影响。文章在汽车供应链三级网络的基础上引入价值模型,以供应链节点企业的股票价格变化为依托,采用历史模拟法对15家处于汽车供应链不同层级企业的供应链风险水平进行评估。结果显示处于供应链网络中游的核心制造企业相较于上游供应企业和下游经销企业具有更高的供应链风险水平。这为汽车供应链中节点企业的供应链风险评估与管控提供了理论依据和决策支持。

Due to such features as many partners involved,a long industrial chain,high collaboration between company nodes,the stability of automobile supply chain network is more susceptible by various external events under the background of changing market environment and fierce industry competition.Based on the three-level network of automobile supply chain,the value model is introduced to evaluate the supply chain risk of 15 enterprises by using the historical simulation method based on the stock price changes of enterprises at the nodes of the supply chain.The result shows that the core manufacturing enterprises generally have higher supply chain risk level compared with the supply enterprises and distribution enterprises,which provides theoretical basis and decision support for the risk control of enterprises in the automotive supply chain.