民族地区巩固拓展脱贫成果的困境及路径选择——来自宁夏的实证分析

The Dilemma and Path Choice of Consolidating and Expanding Poverty Alleviation Achievements in Ethnic Areas:An Empirical Analysis from Ningxia

民族地区、生态脆弱地区和深度贫困地区高度耦合,这是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的最大制约瓶颈。以宁夏为例,构建熵值TOPSIS与耦合协调度等模型,结合贫困性分析,从时空视角探讨了农户居住环境脆弱性与其贫困间的耦合协调的关联。结果显示:从时序看,农户居住环境脆弱性与其贫困间的耦合协调度总体呈下降趋势,受政策调整等因素影响历经了中度耦合协调贫困滞后、高度耦合协调同步发展2种阶段和4种发展类型。从空间分布看,宁夏北部川区至南部山区的农户居住环境脆弱性与其贫困间的耦合协调度整体呈上升趋势,耦合协调发展类型亦从协调发展型向过度调和型转变。这意味着新时期的脱贫成果巩固拓展要与乡村振兴相结合,走绿色可持续的高质量发展之路。

Ethnic minority areas,ecologically fragile areas and deep poverty areas are highly coupled,which is the biggest bottleneck in consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation achievements.Taking Ningxia as an example,this paper constructs the models of entropy weight TOPSIS and coupling coordination degree,combined with poverty analysis,to explore the coupling and coordination relationship between vulnerability of farmers’living environment and poverty from the perspective of time series and spatial distribution.As a result,from the point of view of time series,the coupling coordination degree of vulnerability of farmers’living environment and their previous poverty in Ningxia is decreasing trend as a whole.But under the influence of politics and other factors.It has gone through two stages of development that Moderate coupling coordination-poverty lag and Moderate coupling coordination-synchronous development.On the other hand,from the point of view of spatial distribution,the coupling coordination degree of farmers’living environment vulnerability and their previous poverty in Ningxia shows an overall upward trend and the type of coupling and coordinated development changes from coordinated development to over-harmony from the Chuan district of north Ningxia to mountainous district of south Ningxia.So,poverty governance in the new era should be combined with rural revitalization and take the road of sustainable high-quality development.