入境旅游季节性测度及影响因素研究--基于上海的实证分析

Study on Seasonal Measurement and Influencing Factors of Inbound Tourism--An Empirical Study Based on Shanghai

季节性是入境旅游的典型特征之一,对旅游业发展具有重要影响。本文以2004—2019年入境旅游月度数据为样本,采用变异系数、月度指数测度上海入境旅游需求季节性,并构建面板数据模型分析上海入境旅游需求季节性影响因素。研究发现:①上海入境旅游月集中度波动频繁,季节性明显;②上海入境旅游季节形式表现为中间低,两边高的“M”型,在全年范围内形成旺季、平季和淡季3个旅游季节,其中3月、4月、5月、10月和11月为旺季,1月和2月为淡季,其余月份为平季;③长途客源市场季节性波动较小,但总体季节性较高;短途客源市场季节性在降低,但其内部客源地存在季节性过高和季节性过低的两极分化现象。④经济、气候和社会因素均不同程度显著影响上海入境旅游季节性。

Seasonality is one of the typical characteristics of inbound tourism,which has an important impact on the development of tourism in Shanghai,The paper uses the monthly ratio and the coefficient of variation,over the period 2004—2019 and for the Shanghai,as a measurement of tourism seasonality.In addition to the descriptive results,the paper includes a panel data model,which allows us to investigate some reasonable main determinants of seasonality.The results may be summarized as follows.Firstly,From 2014 to 2019,the monthly concentration of inbound tourism in Shanghai fluctuated frequently and seasonality is evident.Secondly,the Shanghai inbound tourism seasonality shows a pattern of“M”.The whole year can be divided into three seasons,namely peak season,shoulder season and off-season.March,April,May,October and November are the peak seasons,January and February are the off-seasons,the remaining months are the shoulder seasons.Thirdly,the overall seasonality of the short haul market is decreasing,but the internal source countries have a polarization phenomenon of too high and too low seasonality.Lastly,in terms of empirical determinants,Economics,climate and social factors are significant variables.Among them,humidity,visibility,Shanghai World Expo,Oriental Easter,Spring Festival,Christmas have positive impacts on tourism seasonality and substitute price,rain and temperature have negative impacts.Spring Festival is a key variable that affects the seasonality of inbound tourism in Shanghai.