基于云模型和博弈论组合赋权的地铁施工安全风险评价

Safety risk assessment of subway construction based on combination of cloud model and game theory

针对地铁施工安全风险评价过程中存在模糊性、随机性和客观性不强等问题,采用云模型理论和博弈论组合赋权法构建了地铁施工安全风险评价模型。首先建立了包含组织、技术、环境、设备、监控预警、人员指标的地铁施工安全风险评价指标体系,利用网络层次分析法和熵权法分别确定指标权重,通过博弈论理论求得组合权重值,提高指标权重值的客观性;其次运用云模型理论给出了风险评价等级云模型标尺和综合评价云图,通过二者的相似度来判断最终风险等级及主要影响因素。最后以青岛地铁13号线进行实证分析,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。

In view of the problems of fuzziness,randomness and objectivity in the process of subway construction safety risk assessment,the combination weighting method of cloud model theory and game theory is used to build the subway construction safety risk assessment model.Firstly,the index system of subway construction safety risk assessment is established,which includes such indicators as organization,technology,environment,equipment,monitoring and early warning,and personnel.The index weight is determined by network analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method respectively,and the combined weight value is obtained by game theory to improve the objectivity of index weight value.Secondly,the scale of risk assessment grade cloud model and a comprehensive evaluation cloud chart are provided by using cloud model theory.Through the similarity of the two,the final risk level and the main influencing factors are determined.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of this method are verified by the empirical analysis of Qingdao line 13.