基于通径分析的装配式建筑发展关键影响因素研究

Critical Factors Affecting the Development of Prefabricated Buildings Based on the Path Analysis

基于装配式建筑发展能力视角,选取2016-2018年31个省份的实际数据,运用通径分析方法,分析经济能力、基础能力、政策环境能力三个维度影响因素对装配式建筑发展速度和发展规模两个层面的影响.研究发现,目前政策环境对发展速度促进作用最直接和显著,构件厂产能为代表的基础设施能力对发展规模直接作用最显著,以GDP为代表的经济能力起着间接支持作用,且对发展规模效果比速度显著.提出政府应加大政策环境支持,持续孵化产业和市场环境;配套设置基础能力,避免产能不足的限制;注重经济能力的支持保障,实现装配式建筑发展由政府主导向市场主控的良性转变等相应建议.

Based on the perspective of the development capacity of prefabricated buildings,this paper selects the actual data of 31 provinces in 2016-2018,and uses path analysis method to analyze the influence of three dimensions of economic capacity,basic capacity and policy environmental capacity on the development speed and scale of prefabricated buildings.The conclusions can be conducted:at present,the policy environment plays the most direct and significant role in promoting the development speed;The basic capacity represented by component factory capacity plays the most significant role in the development scale;The economic capacity represented by GDP plays an indirect supporting role,and the effect on the development scale is more significant than the speed.Finally,it is suggested that the government should increase the support of policy environment,continuously incubate the industry and market environment;The industry should set up the basic capacity to avoid the limitation of insufficient production capacity;and the government should pay attention to the support and guarantee of economic capacity,and realize the benign transformation of the development of prefabricated buildings from the government to the market.