基于灰色预测模型的广州港货运发展研究

Research on the Freight Development of Guangzhou Port Based on Grey Prediction Model

新冠肺炎疫情对广州港的货运发展产生了一定程度的影响,但目前仍然缺少相关的定量研究.基于灰色预测模型,利用港口货物吞吐量、外贸货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量三个货运指标,在新冠肺炎疫情没发生的这一假设下,推测2020年1-8月广州港的各货运发展指标值.基于预测值与实际值的比较,定量研究广州港的货运发展受新冠肺炎的影响值,反映新冠肺炎疫情对广州港货运增长的影响程度.实证结果显示:新冠肺炎疫情给广州港货运增长带来的总体影响比较大,对港口货物吞吐量的影响程度为-4.08%,外贸货物的影响-6.33%,集装箱货物的影响-5.79%.为了进一步探索如何减弱新冠肺炎疫情对广州港货运发展的影响,引入了灰色关联度模型,对广州港货运发展的关联因素进行研究.通过广州港货运发展关联因素研究,提出在后疫情时代,促进广州港货运发展的相关举措.

The COVID-19 epidemic has a certain impact on the development of freight transport of Guangzhou port,but there is still lack of quantitative research.Grey forecast model and method are used in this paper,basic on this model we select three freight indexes which are port cargo throughput,foreign trade cargo throughput,and container throughput to forecast the development of Guangzhou port freight.Based on the comparison between the predicted value and the actual value,the freight development of Guangzhou port is quantitatively studied,to research the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Guangzhou port freight development.The empirical results reveal that the overall impact on Guangzhou port freight growth is relatively large,the impact on port cargo throughput is-4.08%,that of foreign trade goods is-6.33%,and that of container cargo is-5.79%.To study how to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Guangzhou port freight development,the grey correlation model is introduced to study the related factors of the development of Guangzhou port freight transport.Through the research on the related factors of Guangzhou port freight development,this paper puts forward relevant measures to promote the development of Guangzhou port freight transport in the post epidemic era.