四川省PM_(2.5)时空演化特征及定量模拟

The Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Quantitative Simulation of PM_(2.5) in Sichuan Province

文章利用气象要素和PM_(2.5)质量浓度数据,对四川省PM_(2.5)的时空变化和定量模拟进行了研究。结果表明:西、北地区PM_(2.5)污染最轻,污染呈改善趋势,四季变化不明显;东、南地区污染较重,四季变化明显,其中成都、巴中空气质量改善较大,宜宾、内江和自贡空气质量改善不明显。同时,混合效应模型会显著提高气象要素与PM_(2.5)之间的相关性,绵阳模拟效果最好,交叉验证后,R^(2)为0.82,RMSE为7.32μg/m^(3),PRE为13.39%;宜宾最差,三者分别为0.74、23.61μg/m^(3)和34.54%;八地市平均为0.78、16.31μg/m^(3)和26.68%。

This paper studies the spatiotemporal evolution and quantitative simulation of PM_(2.5) in Sichuan Province by using meteorological elements and PM_(2.5) mass concentration data.The results show:PM_(2.5) pollution in Sichuan’s western and northern regions is the lightest and displays a trend of continual improvement,and the change in four seasons is not obvious;the eastern and southern regions are heavily polluted,with obvious changes in four seasons.Among them,the air quality in Chengdu and Bazhong has improved greatly,the air quality in Yibin,Neijiang and Zigong has not improved significantly.At the same time,the mixed effect model will significantly improve the correlation between meteorological elements and PM_(2.5),Mianyang has the best simulation effect.After the cross validation,R^(2) is 0.82,RMSE is 7.32μg/m^(3) and PRE is 13.39%;Yibin is the worst,the three index are respectively 0.74,23.61μg/m^(3) and 34.54%;the average value of eight cities are 0.78,16.31μg/m^(3) and 26.68%.