房价上涨、房地产扩张与高新技术产业发展——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Rising House Prices,Real Estate Expansion and High-tech Industry Development

基于1999—2017年31省份的面板数据,构建系统广义矩(SYS-GMM)模型、动态面板门槛模型进行实证检验,分析房价上涨、房地产扩张对高新技术产业发展的影响。结果表明,房价上涨、房地产扩张对高新技术产业投入和产出两方面均有明显的抑制作用,2008年经济危机后,房价上涨对高新技术产业投入和产出的抑制作用显著增强;进一步研究发现房价上涨对高新技术产业发展存在"门槛效应"。具体来说,在房价收入比较低时,房价上涨对高新技术产业发展有促进作用;在房价收入比较高时,房价上涨会显著抑制高新技术产业发展;高新技术投入与产出均具有一定的惯性,政府支持对高新技术产业产出的推动作用显著。本文根据研究结论提出了相应的对策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2017,the system generalized moment(SYS-GMM)model and the dynamic panel threshold model were used to comprehensively and empirically analyze the relationship between house-price rising,real-estate expansion and high-tech industry developing. The results show that housing-price rising and real-estate expanding have a significant inhibitory effect on the development of high-tech industries,especially after the 2008 economic crisis. Furthermore,research shows that there is a house-price rising threshold effect on the development of high-tech industries. Specifically,when the HPIR(House Price to Income Ratio)is relatively low,the house-price rising has a significant positive effect on the development of high-tech industry. When the HPIR is relatively high,the effect of house-price rising on the development of high-tech industries changed to strong inhibition. High-tech input and output have certain inertia. The government’s support plays an important role on promoting the development of high-tech industries. According to the empirical results,strategies and suggestions were put forward.