长江上游船舶大型化对典型污染排放的影响

Impact of ship enlargement on typical pollution emissions in the upper Yangtze River

长江上游船舶大型化趋势明显,评估其对典型污染排放的影响对航道建设规划具有重要意义。收集计算长江上游船舶吨位、船舶交通流、船舶燃油消耗及典型污染物排放等数据,分析了长江上游船舶大型化对典型污染物排放的综合影响。结果表明:1)2008—2019年长江上游三省一市船舶平均吨位从249 t增加到874 t,船舶流量显著减小,货运量显著增加。2)上游航道等级由Ⅳ级提升至Ⅲ级,理想状态下船舶单位周转量典型大气污染排放减少31.2%。3)水路货运周转量增加导致船舶污染总排放增加,但基于船舶平均吨位大型化计算,2008—2019年水路运输替代陆路运输的污染物减排量约190万t,较船舶平均吨位不变状态下的污染减排量增长约7.7%。4)建议提升长江上游航道等级至Ⅱ级,进一步推动船舶大型化发展,相对于Ⅲ级航道船舶单位周转量典型大气污染排放可减少36.4%,促进交通运输行业实现“碳中和”目标。

Considering the growing enlargement trend of ships in the upper Yangtze River,it is of great significance for waterway construction planning to assess the impact of this trend on typical pollution emissions.Therefore,we collect and calculate the data on the tonnage,traffic flow,fuel consumption,and typical pollutant emissions of ships in the upper Yangtze River and analyze the comprehensive impact of ship enlargement on typical pollutant emissions.The results are shown as follows:1)The average tonnage of ships in three provinces and one city of the upper Yangtze River increased from 249 to 874 tons from 2008 to 2019,with a significant decrease in the traffic flow and a significant increase in the freight volume.2)The waterway class of the upper Yangtze River has upgraded from ClassⅣto ClassⅢ,and the typical air pollution emissions per unit turnover of ships in ideal conditions have been reduced by 31.2%.3)The increase in waterway freight turnover leads to the growth in total pollution emissions from ships,but the calculations on the average tonnage of enlarged ships show that the waterway transport from 2008 to 2019,a replacement for land transport,lessens the pollution emissions by about 1.9 million tons,which registers a growth rate of 7.7%in pollution emission reduction compared to that on the average tonnage of ships in a constant state.4)It is proposed to upgrade the waterway class of the upper Yangtze River to Class II and further promote the development of ship enlargement.In this way,the typical air pollution emissions per unit turnover of ships can be reduced by 36.4%relative to the Class III waterway,which can facilitate the transport industry to achieve the goal of“carbon neutrality.”