多风险因素耦合的地铁施工安全系统脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of the subway construction safety system with coupled multiple risk factors

为研究地铁施工风险耦合机理和地铁施工系统的脆弱性,提高地铁施工系统的安全性。结合脆弱性理论,归纳地铁施工安全风险因素,构建系统脆弱性模型;并对国内2008—2020年的地铁施工事故进行搜集整理,选取风险致因因素完整的130起事故,运用N-K模型计算不同耦合方式下的风险发生概率以及风险耦合值,获得影响系统脆弱性的关键风险耦合方式。结果表明:系统中的风险因素越多,事故发生的概率越大;人员因素、管理因素与环境因素完全耦合时,地铁施工安全系统脆弱性较大。研究明确系统中脆弱性的关键耦合风险,为地铁施工安全控制方面提供了参考价值。

In order to improve the safety of subway construction, the risk coupling mechanism and the vulnerability of subway construction system are studied.By referring to the vulnerability theory and summarizing the risk factors of subway construction safety, a system vulnerability model is established.Furthermore, the domestic subway construction accidents during the period 2008 to 2020 are collected and organized, and among the 130 accidents with complete risk factors are selected to calculate the probability of risk occurrence and risk coupling values under different coupling methods, so that the key risk coupling methods affecting the system vulnerability can be attained by the N-K model.The results show that the more risk factors in the system, the greater the probability of accident occurrence;when the personnel factors, management factors and environmental factors are fully coupled, the vulnerability of the subway construction safety system shall be greater.The study clarifies the key coupling risks of vulnerability in the system and provides a reference for the control of subway construction safety.