中国对外直接投资驱动装备制造业全球价值链低碳升级的路径研究

Exploring the Path of OFDI Driven Low-carbon Upgrade of China’s Equipment Manufacturing Global Value Chain

本文将低碳经济理念纳入中国装备制造业全球价值链升级的框架,利用2000—2019年中国装备制造业细分行业面板数据,采用多重中介模型,研究中国对外直接投资如何影响装备制造业全球价值链低碳升级。研究发现:在装备制造业整体层面,中国对外直接投资可以通过逆向技术溢出效应和前向关联效应两条路径促进全球价值链低碳升级,但边际产业转移效应和后向关联效应的中介作用不显著;在细分行业层面,低碳细分行业的实证结果与装备制造业整体层面一致;而在高碳细分行业,中国对外直接投资对全球价值链低碳升级存在负直接效应,通过边际产业转移效应和逆向技术溢出效应两条路径可以促进其全球价值链低碳升级。

This paper incorporated the concept of “low-carbon economy”into the global value chain low-carbon upgrade mechanism of China’s equipment manufacturing industry( EMI). Adopting panel data of China’s EMI from 2000 to 2019,the study developed multi-mediation models to estimate four distinguished paths for assessing how China’s outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) affected its low-carbon upgrade mechanism of China’s EMI in the global value chain. The findings reveal that at the overall level of EMI,China’s OFDI can promote the upgrade of low-carbon potential in the global value chain through reverse technology spillover effect and forward correlation effect. However,the mediating effect of the marginal industry transfer effect and backward correlation effect is not significant. In the context of sub-industry,the empirical results of low-carbon sub-industry are consistent with the overall level. Whereas,in high-carbon sub-industries,the direct effect of China’s OFDI on the low-carbon upgrade of the global value chain is negative,and the low-carbon level of global value chain can be improved through the critical roles of marginal industry transfer effect and reverse technology spillover effect.