东道国投资壁垒、汇率波动与中国对外直接投资

Investment Barrier of Host Country, Exchange Rate Fluctuation and China’s Foreign Direct Investment

在国际竞争激烈的大背景下,各国的投资壁垒日益增加。我们采用2010-2019年41个国家的面板数据,构建了以实际有效汇率指数为中介变量的中介效应模型并进行Sobel检验,探究了东道国投资壁垒对我国对外直接投资的影响作用。研究发现,东道国投资壁垒的上升会减少我国的对外直接投资流量,实际有效汇率指数在其中不存在中介效应,而是存在遮掩效应,即投资限制指数遮掩了实际有效汇率指数对外来直接投资的影响作用。最后,据此提出拓展我国对外直接投资发展空间的相关建议。

In the context of international competition,investment barriers are increasing in various countries. This paper attempts to explore the innovative influence mechanism of investment barriers in host countries on China’s OFDI, and uses panel data from 41 countries in 2010-2019 to construct an intermediary effect model with the actual effective exchange rate index as an intermediary variable and conduct a Sobel test. It is found that the rise of investment barriers in host countries will reduce China’s OFDI flows, in which there is no intermediary effect of the real effective exchange rate index, but there is a masking effect, that is, the investment restriction index obscures the impact of the real effective exchange rate index on foreign direct investment. According to this, this paper puts forward how to expand China’s foreign direct investment development space policy recommendations.