拜登政府的东南亚政策:态势、动因与挑战

The Biden Administration’s Policy Toward Southeast Asia:Momentum,Motivation and Challenges

拜登上台后,美国高度重视东南亚,逐步加大对东南亚地区的战略投入,聚焦外交、经济、军事三个维度,拓宽与东南亚国家合作的深度和广度。相关政策举措集中反映了拜登政府东南亚政策的新趋向,即聚焦对华"全政府"竞争;提升美国在东南亚国家的战略影响;强化对东盟等地区机制的战略塑造,将东南亚纳入美国印太战略的核心区。尽管拜登政府对东南亚的外交政策来势汹汹,但囿于美国国内政治极化加剧和对外援助资金有限,东盟国家对华经济依赖加深和坚持"不选边站"的谨慎心态等现实因素,拜登政府深化与东南亚国家关系的努力将面临较大挑战,东南亚国家彻底倒向美国阵营的可能性较小。未来中、美、东南亚三方博弈或将成为地区格局演变的重要决定力量。

Since the beginning of the Biden administration,the United States has attached great importance to Southeast Asia and gradually increased strategic input to the region,with a focus on diplomatic,economic and military dimensions,in a bid to expand and deepen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.Relevant policy measures reflect the new trend of the Biden administration’s Southeast Asia policy,namely focusing on“whole-ofgovernment”competition with China,enhancing U.S.strategic influence over Southeast Asian countries,and strengthening strategic reshaping of regional mechanisms such as ASEAN to include the region in the core area of the U.S.Indo-Pacific Strategy.Despite the Biden administration’s aggressive diplomacy toward Southeast Asia,it is less likely that Southeast Asian countries will fall into the U.S.camp due to the aggravating political polarization in the U.S.,limited US foreign aid funds,the deepening economic dependence of ASEAN countries on China,and their cautious attitude of“not to take sides”.