智库双螺旋法的“十个关键问题”

“Ten Key Issues”of Think Tank Double Helix Methodology

随着智库建设的深入推进,智库研究的重要性日益凸显。智库双螺旋法着眼于解决智库研究"怎么做"这一基本问题,为智库研究提供了系统的认知框架和理论方法。文章从智库研究本源出发,围绕智库双螺旋法的"十个关键问题"展开研讨,阐述各关键问题的内涵及意义,梳理针对各关键问题的智库方法研究,并结合智库双螺旋法的理论研究与实践应用提出各关键问题的重点关注内容。"十个关键问题"是智库双螺旋法的又一创新、深化和发展,其解决将为智库双螺旋法提供更加具体的方法集和工具集,使智库研究更加具有操作性、规范性和科学性。

With the deepening of think tank construction,the importance of think tank research has become increasingly prominent.Think tank double helix methodology focuses on solving the problem of“how to do”think tank research,provides a systematic cognitive perspective for think tank research.Starting from the origin of think tank research,this study proposes the“ten key issues”of the think tank double helix methodology.The first key issue is“the decomposition and analysis of think tank problem”.This issue is the critical starting point for think tank problem research.The think tank problem is simplified and decomposed into the single-dimensional sub-problem set,and the structured cognitive framework is established,which is linked to the existing knowledge system.The second key issue is“the scenario analysis driven by think tank problem”.The various scenarios of the think tank problem that may occur in the future are considered,and the possibility of these scenarios,their impact and consequences are analyzed to help decision makers make reasonable decisions.The third key issue is“the uncertainty analysis of think tank problem research”.Through analyzing the uncertainty in policy-making,the risk degree and scope brought by uncertainty,and the results under different risks,the deviation of think tank problem solution is reduced.The fourth key issue is“the policy simulation analysis of think tank problem research”.The convergence of economics,sociology,management,public policy,and other multidisciplinary theoretical knowledge is used to model and calculate think tank problem under the support of computer technology,and the past causes and future impacts of policy are analyzed accordingly.The fifth key issue is“the circulative iteration of think tank research”.When there are situations such as incomplete cognitive framework,insufficient expert consensus,and deviations between objective analysis and subjective judgment,a new round research needs to be opened.Such a circulative iteration is a process of deepening understanding,continuous convergence,repeatedly evidence-based,and seeking solutions.The sixth key issue is“the coupling relationship between DIIS and MIPS”.The two spirals of data-information-intelligence-solution(DIIS)and mechanism-impact-policy-solution(MIPS)are tightly coupled,interlocked,and mutually affected,achieving convergence from relatively decentralized,open,and cross-domain think tank research to practical solutions.The seventh key issue is“the expert organization and management of think tank research”.The selection of experts needs to be closely linked to the think tank problem to achieve a match between experts and problem.With the deepening of research,it is necessary to continuously search for and select suitable experts,and dynamically organize a wider range of experts to participate in research.The eighth key issue is“the human-machine combination think tank research support system”.The emergence of artificial intelligence scientists and human-machine combination interaction platform systems provide possibilities for human-machine combination think tank research.This will become the trend and direction of think tanks in the future.The ninth key issue is“the combination of objective analysis and subjective judgment”.To maintain the independence of think tanks,it is necessary to combine objective analysis and subjective judgment,avoid decision-making deviations on the basis of fully considering objective facts,and prevent intentional subjective intervention on the basis of fully analyzing the demands of relevant stakeholders.The tenth key issue is“the think tank product quality management”.The quality of think tank products represents the core competitiveness of the think tank.Think tank double helix methodology can provide a basis for the quality control of the whole think tank research process.“Ten key issues”is another innovation,deepening,and development of think tank double helix methodology.Solving“ten key issues”will provide more specific method and tool set for think tank double helix methodology,and make think tank research more operational,formalization,and scientific.