新舰维修能力生成规律系统动力学仿真研究

System dynamics simulation of generation mechanism of new warship maintenance capability

针对当前海军新型舰船交付初期维修保障面临的困境,提出了由军队采购造船厂延伸保修服务的解决方案。为测算出军方采购延伸保修服务的时长需求,使用系统动力学理论构建了符合新舰维修能力生成规律的系统动力学模型。通过算例仿真及参数敏感性分析可知:军方须采购造船厂大约4年的延伸保修服务,增加学习培训次数等软因素对新舰维修能力的生成有更明显的促进作用。

Focusing on the maintenance and support dilemma faced by the navy′s new type ships at the early stage of delivery,a solution of extending the warranty service by the navy purchasing shipyard was proposed.In order to calculate the time requirement of naval procurement extended warranty service,the system dynamics model of maintenance capability generation mechanism of new warship was constructed by using system dynamics theory.The conclusions were drawn through the example simulation and parameter sensitivity analysis.Firstly,the navy needs to purchase about four years of extended warranty service from shipyards.Secondly,soft factors such as increasing the frequency of training periods have a more obvious role in promoting the generation of new ship maintenance capability.