基于物元可拓的输电线路山火风险评估模型

Evaluation Model of Wildfire Risk in Transmission Lines Based on Matter-Element Extension

为了解决现有的输电线路山火风险评估方法中风险指标单一、过于依赖主观经验等问题,提出了一种基于物元可拓的输电线路山火风险评估模型。首先,收集对山火发生概率产生影响的人为、地理、气候以及线路4大类共15个风险指标,构建了输电线路山火灾害风险评估指标体系。然后,将模糊层次分析法和熵权法相结合,形成主观赋值权重与客观计算权重结合的评估指标组合权重。并在此基础上建立物元可拓评估模型,计算风险指标关联度,基于关联度大小确定最终输电线路山火风险等级。最后,通过对南方某省份输电线路工程进行实例分析,对其山火灾害风险等级进行综合评估,为运维管理人员开展差异化的山火防治工作提供了依据。

The conventional methods for wildfire risk assessment of transmission lines only consider few hazard indicators and largely depend on subjective experiences.This paper proposes a wildfire risk assessment model for transmission lines based on matter-element extension.First,a total of 15 risk sub-factors in four classes of anthropic,topographical,meteorological and transmission lines factors are assembled to construct a wildfire disaster risk assessment index system for transmission lines.Then,the analytic hierarchy process combined with the entropy theory is to evaluate combination weights of indexes,in which subjective and objective weights are com-bined.Next,a matter-element extension evaluation model is established to measure the correlation of risk indicators.Finally,case studies of transmission lines in a southern province of China are analyzed.And a comprehensive risk assessment for wildfire disasters is carried out.It provides a basis for managers to carry out differentiated wildfire prevention and control work.