跟着邻居去出口?——邻居出口信号、不确定性与出口目的地本土集聚

Follow Neighbors to Export——Export Signals from Neighborship,Uncertainty and Agglomeration by Export Destinations

本文识别了一种新型出口集聚方式,即出口目的地的本土集聚,并基于理论和实证两个维度从邻居出口信号的角度解释了其发生原因。本文理论研究表明,与经典理论不同,当存在信息不对称时,企业的出口决策并不是独立完成,而是基于"邻居"所发出的出口信号综合权衡的结果,因此利好的邻居出口信号会带动企业向同一目的国出口,从而出现出口目的地的本土集聚,但较大的市场不确定性会削弱信号的可信度,从而抑制这一集聚过程。在经验研究中,本文基于2000—2016年的海关数据测度了中国的出口目的地本土集聚,发现出口目的地本土集聚程度逐年上升,且与目的地不确定性呈现负相关。基准研究发现利好的邻居出口信号显著提高了出口目的地本土集聚的程度,利用事件分析联合倍差法(ESDID)克服了潜在的内生性问题并引入一种新颖的两阶段方法检验了目的国市场不确定性影响的理论假说,本文的结论意味着,在外部环境相对较差的背景下,信息的透明度与信号传递的正确性、及时性会极大地影响到中国出口目的地分布与出口安全。

This paper identifies a new kind of export agglomeration,i.e.Agglomeration by Export Destinations,and theoretically and empirically explains how this agglomeration happens with export signals from neighbors.The theoretical framework shows that,firm’s export decision-making is not completed independently when there is information asymmetry,but a trade-off depending on the export signals sent by"neighbors".Therefore,positive signals guide firms to export to the same destination,which drives the agglomeration by export destinations.However,greater uncertainty will weaken the credibility of signals,and thus inhibits this agglomeration process.Based on the customs data from 2000 to 2016,the paper measured the agglomeration by export destinations in China,and finds that degree of agglomeration increases year by year,and correlates with destination uncertainty.The baseline result shows that positive export signals significantly promote the degree of agglomeration by export destinations.We also deal with the potential endogenous problems by event study combined with difference in difference(ES-DID)method,and employ a novel two-stage method to test the role of uncertainty.It is concluded that,the information transparency,the correctness and timeliness of signal transmission will greatly affect China’s export destination distribution and export security,as the environment of international trade grows worse.