自由贸易协定原产地规则调整的经济效应评估——以《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则为例

Economic Effects Evaluation of the Adjustment of Rules of Origin in FTA——Based on the Rules of Origin of Automotive Industry in USMCA

本文使用2011—2019年美国汽车市场数据,测度了1354款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性,在识别了原产地规则限制度对合规车型售价影响的基础上,反事实模拟测算了《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则调整的经济效应。研究发现:(1)美国汽车市场上各款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性是异质性的;(2)以北美区域价值含量为代理变量的原产地规则与美国汽车市场上合规车型售价呈正向相关关系,与不合规车型售价呈U型关系;(3)《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则限制度的提升,会对需要调整采购决策以继续合规的车型销量产生负向冲击,其他车型受市场替代效应的影响,其销量有所增加;(4)原产地规则调整降低了对北美自由贸易区外汽车中间品的需求,提升了对区内汽车中间品的需求。

Based on the data of the U.S.automotive market from 2011 to 2019,this paper measures the demand-price elasticity and substitution elasticity of 1354 vehicle models.By identifying the impact of the restrictiveness of rules of origin on the price of USMCA-compliant vehicle models,this paper simulates and calculates the economic effect of the adjustment to rules of origin of automotive industry in USMCA.The results show that:(1)The demand-price elasticity and substitution elasticity of vehicle models in the U.S.automotive market are heterogeneous.(2)Rules of origin represented by the regional value content of the North American free trade area bears a positive correlation with the price of USMCA-compliant vehicle models in the U.S.automotive market,while for other vehicle models,it bears a U-shaped relationship with the price.(3)The increase of the restrictiveness of rules of origin of automotive industry in USMCA exerts a negative impact on the sales of vehicle that need to adjust their sourcing decisions to comply with the rule,while the sales of other vehicle models would increase by the market substitution effect.(4)The adjustment to rules of origin reduces the demand for automotive parts outside the North American free trade area while increases the demand for automotive parts inside the area.