中国未来食物供需展望与政策取向

China’s Future Food Supply and Demand:Prospects and Policies

中国粮食安全始终是国内外广泛关注的问题。本文在分析基准方案下未来10年中国粮食等主要农产品消费、生产和贸易的基础上,结合近期国家主要政策,探讨了在不同政策情景下中国主要食物的供需变动趋势。研究结果表明“口粮绝对安全”的目标能够实现,但许多其他食物消费增长超过国内生产增长;中国食物安全主要是畜产品或饲料粮供给安全问题,通过进口饲料粮来促进畜牧业发展是国家食物安全保障的需要。未来国家还有多种重要政策措施能够提升食物安全保障水平,特别是要夯实“藏粮于技”战略,加快技术进步提升农业生产力;同时夯实“藏粮于地”战略,提升水土资源生产能力;在充分利用国内外资源和市场基础上,实现食物安全保障和绿色永续农业发展的长远目标。

China’s food security has always been a focused topic worldwide.This study analyzes the demand,production and trade of the major agricultural commodities under the baseline scenario and alternative policy scenarios based on the national policies in the next decade.The results show while China can achieve its national goal of‘absolute security in food grain’,but the demands of many other foods will exceed its domestic production.The major issue of China’s food security is security of meat supply or feed grain supply.To ensure meat supply through the raising domestic livestock production and increasing feed imports is in the national interest.China still has a variety of important policies and measures to improve its capacity for ensuing food security,especially through accelerating technological progress to raise agricultural productivity by enhancing the National Strategy of Store Grain(Food)in Technology,and through improving efficient and sustainable uses of land and water by enhancing the National Strategy of Store Grain(Food)in Land.With effective uses of the domestic resources and international markets,China can largely achieve the long-term goals of ensuring food security and greener and sustainable agricultural development.