美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格时变冲击效应研究

The Impact of the Uncertainty of US Trade Policy on the Price of Chinese Livestock Products

本文基于2006年1月至2020年11月的中国猪、牛、羊等畜产品价格数据和美国贸易政策不确定性指数,利用带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR模型),考察美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格波动的影响。研究发现:美国贸易政策不确定性对不同畜产品价格波动的影响存在阶段性特征,会推动畜产品价格周期性变动。在欧洲债务危机时期、中美贸易蓬勃发展后期、特朗普政府上台初期以及中美贸易摩擦升级时期这四个时期,美国贸易政策不确定性对中国不同畜产品价格波动的影响表现出差异性特征。美国贸易政策不确定性对中国猪肉价格的影响程度最深,对牛肉和羊肉价格冲击程度最小。据此,提出根据美国贸易条件变动预期相机抉择,达到平抑畜产品市场变动的目的,并以猪肉市场稳定为关键,多措并举,发挥市场供求调节能力。

Based on the price data of Chinese livestock products such as pork,beef and mutton from January 2006 to November 2020 and the uncertainty index of US trade policy,this paper investigate the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of Chinese livestock products by the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model with Stochastic Volatility(TVP-SV-VAR model).The main conclusions are as follows:The impact is time-varying for US trade policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of different livestock products,which promotes the cyclical change of livestock product prices.In the European debt crisis period,the later period of the vigorous development of Sino-US trade,the early days of the Trump administration and the upgrading period of Sino-US trade friction,there are different characteristics for the impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of different livestock products in China.The US trade policy uncertainty has the greatest impact on China’s pork price,and the least impact on beef and mutton price.Based on this,it is suggested that we should make a decision to make the market of livestock products more stable according to the expectation of changes in the terms of trade of the US.We should stabilize the pork market,and take various measures simultaneously to the regulation capacity of market supply and demand.