黄河流域城市经济韧性的空间溢出效应研究

Spatial Spillover Effects of Urban Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

采集2004—2018年黄河流域84个地级市的面板数据,由地理距离与经济距离相结合构建了嵌套式空间权重矩阵,采用偏微分分解法下的空间杜宾模型探讨黄河流域城市经济韧性各影响因素间的溢出效应。结果表明:黄河流域城市间存在紧密的空间联系并呈现较强的集聚特征,第二、三产业占比和人力资源对黄河流域城市经济韧性有显著影响;直接效应中对当地经济韧性影响深刻的变量是第二产业占比和人力资源;在加入空间因素后的间接效应中,对周边城市产生显著正向溢出效应的是第二产业、第三产业及人力资源,创新能力表现为显著的负向溢出效应,市场规模无明显溢出效应。发展建议:加强黄河流域跨省市合作,以高韧性值城市带动低韧性值城市经济发展;在持续发挥第二产业优势基础上,注入技术创新,优化产业结构;由政府出台相关政策引进更多人才,通过增强高校建设力度,培育高素质劳动力。

In this paper,panel data of 84 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2018 were collected,and a nested spatial weight matrix was constructed by combining geographical distance with eco‐nomic distance.The spatial Dubin model based on partial differential decomposition method was used to explore the spillover effects of various influencing factors of urban economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin.The re‐sults show that:(1)cities in the Yellow River Basin have close spatial linkages and show strong agglomeration characteristics,and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries and human resources have a significant im‐pact on the economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin.(2)Among the direct effects,the share of sec‐ondary industry and human resources have a profound impact on local economic resilience.(3)In the indirect ef‐fects of the addition of spatial factors,the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and human resources have a significant positive spillover effect on the surrounding cities,innovation ability shows a significant negative spill‐over effect,market size has no obvious spillover effect.Suggestions:break through administrative boundaries and strengthen inter-provincial cooperation in the Yellow River Basin,and promote economic development of cities with high resilience value and low resilience value;On the basis of continuously exerting the advantages of the secondary industry,injecting technological innovation to optimize the industrial structure;The government intro‐duces relevant policies to introduce more talents and cultivate high-quality labor force through strengthening the construction of colleges and universities.