2018年1816号台风“贝碧嘉”过程分析

Analysis Process of the 1816 Typhoon “Bebiuca” in 2018

1816号台风"贝碧嘉"从加强为热带低压开始在南海回旋摆动,近海两次打转,历时长达一周,其间曾3次登陆我国,路径极为复杂,且强度多变,移动速度慢,给广东、海南及广西沿海一带带来了长时间的风雨影响。从天气形势、数值预报、路径成因以及风雨影响等多个角度出发,全面分析此次台风过程的成因、数值模拟特点等,并做好经验总结,以期提高此类路径复杂、预报难度大的台风的预报准确度。

The 1816 typhoon “Bebiuca” began to swing over the South China Sea after strengthening to a tropical depression,The offshore twice turned, lasted as long as a week, during which three times landed in China, the path is extremely complex;And variable intensity, slow moving speed, to Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi coastal areas bring a long period of wind and rain impact. In this paper, the causes of the typhoon process and the characteristics of numerical simulation are comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of weather situation, numerical forecast, path cause, wind and rain influence, etc., and the experience is summarized in order to improve the prediction accuracy of the typhoon with complicated path and difficult forecast.