国家创新空间要素与国民收入增长实证研究

A Study on the Elements of National Innovation Space and National Income Growth

针对国家创新空间促进国民收入增长问题,依据创新空间理论,基于世界银行1995-2018年199个经济体数据,运用逐步回归方法,构建自变量对国内生产总值GDP和人均国民收入GNIper的分析框架,并探讨决定因素及增长差异。实证结果显示:技术创新R&D、政府效率EOG、外国投资FDI、税收政策TAX、城镇化URBA、基础设施建设INTE、净移民LIVE、教育水平EDUC、碳排放CARB、实际利率FINA和政策安全指数COI对促进国民收入增长具有显著性;URBA和INTE在所有分组类别中对国民收入增长具有正向关系,但是其他变量作用经济增长具有异质性,就业率EMPL与经济增长关系为倒U型结构,曲面向下,曲率为-0.00046,LIVE与经济增长呈现正U型结构,当LIVE数量达到规模效应后,开始出现正效益。曲面开口向上,曲率为0.001。实证结果为疫情下的经济体通过创新空间要素投入促进国民收入增长提供了理论基础和实践指导。

In response to the issue of national innovation space promoting national income growth,according to the innovation space theory,based on data from 199 economies of the World Bank from 1995 to 2018,using the stepwise regression method,set up the analysis framework of the independent variables on GDP and GNIper,and explore the determinants and growth differences.The empirical results show that:technological innovation,government efficiency,FDI,tax policy,urbanization,infrastructure construction,net immigration,education level,carbon emissions,real interest rate and policy safety index are significant for promoting national income growth.Urbanization and infrastructure construction have a positive relationship with national income growth in all sub-categories,however,the economic growth of other variables is heterogeneous.The relationship between employment rate and economic growth is an inverted U-shaped structure,with a downward curve and a curvature of-0.00046.net immigrants and economic growth present a positive U-shaped structure.When the number of net immigrants reaches the scale effect,positive benefits begin to appear.The curved surface opens upward,and the curvature is 0.001.The empirical results provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the economy under the epidemic to promote the growth of national income through the input of innovative spatial elements.