中国对外直接投资有助于沿线国家绿色技术创新吗——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的检验

Does China′s OFDI Improve Green Innovation of Countries along the Belt and Road?

“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色转型给中国承担新使命、促进国内国际双循环和绿色发展创造了新机遇。基于中国对外直接投资(OFDI)特征,研究其对“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新的影响及作用机制。研究发现,中国OFDI主要通过绿色技术溢出机制、增长机制影响“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新;该绿色技术创新效应随着互联互通合作水平提升而显著增强,且对沿线国家绿色技术创新的改善效果主要体现在高收入组国家。

China is devoted to building a dual circulation development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement.On the one hand,we consolidate domestic high-quality development momentum.On the other hand,we actively promote a new pattern of high-level opening-up and respond to the adverse impact of anti-globalization.In particular,the achievements of the Belt and Road Initiative are obvious to all.In the post-epidemic era,the Belt and Road countries have shown stronger cooperation intentions and development resilience.With the rapid development of China′s OFDI,how China′s OFDI affects the environment of countries along the route has become a controversial issue that needs to be resolved urgently.Thus,this paper attempts to answer the following four research questions:(1)What are the effects of China′s OFDI on green innovation of countries along the Belt and Road?(2)What functional mechanism brings about these effects?(3)Will the level of connectivity between the countries along the route and China promote the effects of China′s OFDI?(4)What are the differences in countries of different income groups?The answers to these questions will help clarify China′s role in the green development of countries along the Belt and Road and provide new empirical evidence for the study of the economic consequences of the Belt and Road Initiative.Based on a panel data of countries along the Belt and Road between 2003 and 2019,the paper utilizes advanced econometric measures such as fixed effects and mediating effect model to answer the four questions and accomplish its objectives.At the same time,this paper employs instrumental variables to eliminate the endogeneity problem of the model.It also replaces measurement indicators in order to check the robustness of the results.The results reveal that China′s OFDI has a positive contribution to green innovation of countries along the Belt and Road.The mechanism test shows that China′s OFDI mainly plays its role through the green technology spillover mechanism and economic growth mechanism.The effect has been significantly enhanced by the connectivity and the effect mainly occurs in high-income countries.This conclusion is still valid after replacing measurement indicators and using instrumental variables.The 2SLS techniques were employed to produce unbiased results.China′s OFDI is instrumented with historical mutual trust relationship between China and countries along the route.The research clarifies China′s role in the green development of countries along the Belt and Road,and provides a valuable reference for green recovery and maintaining a virtuous circle of international economy when the global governance structure changes.This paper seeks to make the following contributions based on the existing literature.Firstly,based on the perspective of China′s economic development,many studies have examined the effects of foreign direct investment on China′s environment,confirming the reverse technology spillover effects of China′s OFDI.These studies ignore the effects of China′s OFDI on countries along the route.Different from previous literature,this paper innovatively studies the effect of China′s OFDI on green innovation in countries along the Belt and Road.This paper provides evidence for understanding the role of China′s OFDI.Secondly,from the perspective of the influence mechanism,this paper makes a comprehensive interpretation on how China′s OFDI affects green innovation in countries along the route with the background of the new era of green development.Finally,based on the level of connectivity and income,this paper discusses differentiation effects of China′s OFDI,which provides ideas for formulating differentiated green innovation cooperation programs.This paper gives the following policy suggestions.First,the improvement of green innovation system in all respects has laid a solid foundation for the realization of the role of China′s OFDI.Specifically,on the one hand,we need to concentrate resources to accelerate breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies.On the other hand,we need to grasp the opportunity of a new round of industrial chain transition,build an innovation chain based on the industrial chain,and empower the transformation and application of green innovation.Second,connectivity has profoundly affected the effects of China′s OFDI.We need to promote connectivity which in all respects requires both hard connectivity such as infrastructure construction and soft connectivity to build a green community of countries along the route.Third,China′s OFDI has differentiated effects on green innovation in countries with different income groups,therefore it requires international cooperation with full consideration of the resource endowments,international division of labor,and historical conditions of countries along the route.