湖北省能源消费CO_(2)与大气污染物协同减排研究

Research on synergistic emission reduction between CO_(2) and air pollutants of energy consumption in Hubei Province

以2015年为基准年,基于拓展的STIRPAT模型预测2025年湖北省能源消费CO_(2)和主要大气污染物排放量。通过设置基准(记为BAU)情景、低碳(记为LC)情景和强化低碳(记为ELC)情景3种控制情景,测算CO_(2)和主要大气污染物的减排量,并运用污染物减排量交叉弹性法评价了CO_(2)减排对主要大气污染物的协同效应。结果表明,人口数量和第二产业占比是影响湖北省能源消费的关键因素,人均GDP和城市化率对能源消费有驱动作用,而能耗强度对能源消费有抑制作用。人口数量、人均GDP、第二产业占比、能耗强度、城市化率每发生1.000%的变化,将分别引起湖北省能源消费总量相应发生1.273%、0.215%、1.161%、0.014%和0.096%的变化。至2025年,ELC情景下预计可减少能源消费约1000万t(以标准煤计),削减0.14亿t的CO_(2)排放,同时可分别减少SO_(2)、NO_(x)、PM_(10)排放量2.06万、2.33万、0.93万t。工业和建筑业部门对CO_(2)和主要大气污染物协同减排贡献最大,其次为能源生产与加工转换部门。LC情景和ELC情景政策均对CO_(2)和大气污染物具有协同减排效应。

Based on the expanded STIRPAT model,CO_(2) and major air pollutants emissions from energy consumption of Hubei Province in 2025 were forcasted with 2015 as the base year.The reduction emissions of CO_(2) and major air pollutants were predicted under the three setted scenarios:business as usual(BAU)scenario,low carbon(LC)scenario and enhanced low-carbon(ELC)scenario,respectively.Pollutant reduction cross-elasticity was used to assess the synergistic effect of CO_(2) emission reduction on major air pollutants.The results showed that population and the proportion of the secondary industry were key driving factors affecting energy consumption of Hubei Province.Per capita GDP and urbanization rate promoted energy consumption,while energy consumption intensity had a negative effect on energy consumption.For 1.000%change in population,per capita GDP,the proportion of the secondary industry,energy consumption intensity and urbanization rate showed 1.273%,0.215%,1.161%,0.014%and 0.096%change in energy consumption in Hubei Province,respectively.Up to 2025,energy consumption would reduce by 10 million t(measured as coal equivalents)under ELC scenario,and the anticipated emissions of CO_(2),SO_(2),NO_(x),PM_(10) would be respectively reduced by 14 million,2.06×10^(4),2.33×10^(4) and 9.30×10^(3) t.Industry and construction sector contributed the most to the synergistic reduction of CO_(2) and major air pollutants,followed by energy production and processing conversion sector.Both the LC scenario and the ELC scenario policy had synergistic emission reduction effects on CO_(2) and air pollutants.