碳中和背景下中国钢铁行业低碳发展路径

Low Carbon Development Pathway of China’s Iron and Steel Industry under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality——Consensus and Uncertainty

钢铁行业的低碳转型对于我国实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有至关重要的作用,有必要提前研究"双碳"目标下中国钢铁行业的发展路径及技术路线图。本文回顾了中国钢铁行业发展的历史趋势;归纳了钢铁行业实现低碳发展的主要技术选择;基于文献调研汇总了近年来关于中国钢铁行业低碳发展路径的相关研究,并总结了不同研究对钢铁未来低碳路径中关键参数的判断,包括粗钢产量、废钢资源量、电炉炼钢比例、低碳技术应用、能耗强度、二氧化碳排放等,同时分析了不同研究得出的普遍认识和主要差异。在研究中我们也简要分析了中国钢铁转型路径与全球钢铁转型路径之间的异同。基于上述分析,本文提出了"双碳"目标下中国钢铁行业发展路径的研究需求。

Low-carbon transformation of iron and steel industry plays a vital role in realizing the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China. It is necessary to study its development path and technical roadmap under the “dual carbon” goal in advance. This study introduces the evolving trend of historical carbon emissions in China’s iron and steel industry, and summarizes the main technology choices for the iron and steel industry to achieve low-carbon development. Based on the literature review, this study combines the relevant studies on the low-carbon development pathway of China’s iron and steel industry in recent years, and comprehensively analyzes their quantitative predictions on the key elements of low-carbon development of iron and steel industry, including crude steel output, scrap steel resources, energy consumption intensity, low-carbon technology application, share of electric furnace steel, carbon dioxide emissions. We also briefly analyzes the similarities and differences of iron and steel industry transformation in China and abroad. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the research needs of the development path of China’s iron and steel industry under the “dual carbon” goal.