基于文献计量的水质模型研究现状与发展趋势分析

Research Status and Development Trend of Water Quality Model Based on Bibliometrics

当前水环境污染防治形势仍然严峻,地表水环境风险评价是水污染防治的重要工作,水质模型的开发和应用对于水质预警具有重要意义。为进一步了解水质模型的发展,采用文献计量方法对Web of Science核心引文数据库中2000-2020年发表的有关水质模型的文献进行分析,对水质模型的发展前景进行预测。结果显示:(1)近20年发文量呈逐年递增趋势,年增长率约为11.7%,水质模型的研究方向主要集中在水体污染物预测和健康风险评价;(2)开展相关研究的机构主要分布在美国、中国和英国,且具有较大学术影响力的相关研究机构的作者之间合作密切;(3)水质模型逐渐成为交叉学科的研究热点,引入云计算、人工智能等先进技术或结合其他学科领域的知识可以促进综合性水环境监测体系的建立,达到水质模型多样化发展的目的。

At present,the situation of water environmental pollution prevention and control is still severe.Surface water environmental risk assessment is an important work of water pollution prevention and control.The development and application of water quality model is of great significance for water quality early warning.In order to further understand the development of water quality model,the literature on water quality model published in the web of science core citation database from 2000-2020 is analyzed by bibliometrics,and the development prospect of water quality model is predicted.The results show that:(1)The number of papers published in recent 20 years has increased year by year,the annual growth rate is about 11.7%,and the research direction of water quality model mainly focuses on water pollution prediction and health risk assessment;(2)Relevant research institutions are mainly distributed in the United States,China and the United Kingdom,and the authors of relevant research institutions with great academic influence cooperate frequently with each other;(3)Water quality model has gradually become an interdisciplinary research focus,and the introduction of advanced technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence or combined with the knowledge of other disciplines can promote the establishment of comprehensive water environment monitoring system and achieve the purpose of diversified development of water quality model.