基于改进灰色模型的河南省水生态足迹分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Water Ecological Footprint in Henan Province Based on Improved Grey Model

结合残差灰色-马尔可夫耦合模型,预测河南省2016年~2025年的水生态足迹和水生态承载力。结果表明,河南省水生态足迹的变化由水质生态足迹决定,水生态承载力的变化与降雨量密切相关。2005年~2015年间,河南省水生态足迹呈下降趋势,从最高值4.535亿hm^(2)下降至最低值3.647亿hm^(2);水生态承载力变化幅度不大,多年平均值为0.18亿hm^(2);该省一直处于水生态赤字状态,水资源负载指数除2005年外均为Ⅰ级,面临严峻的水资源短缺问题。预测结果显示,2016年~2025年河南省水生态赤字呈下降趋势,但赤字程度仍然很大,水生态安全状况不容乐观。

The water ecological footprint and water ecological carrying capacity of Henan Province from 2016 to 2025 are predicted based on the residual gray-Markov coupling model.The results show that the change of water ecological footprint in Henan Province is determined by the ecological footprint of water quality,and the change of water ecological carrying capacity is closely related to rainfall.From 2005 to 2015,the water ecological footprint of Henan Province shows a downward trend from the highest value of 453.5 million hm^(2) to the lowest value of 364.7 million hm^(2).The variation of water ecological carrying capacity is small and the annual average is 18 million hm^(2).Henan Province has always been in water ecological deficit,and the water resources load index is Grade I except 2005,which means the province facing severe water resources shortage problem.The forecast results indicate that the water ecological deficit of Henan Province shows a downward trend from 2016 to 2025,but the deficit degree is still large,and the water ecological security situation is not optimistic.