青藏高原降水变化特征及趋势分析

Analysis on the Characteristics and Trend of Precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

研究干旱半干旱典型区域降水的动态变化及未来走向有助于应对气候变化。采取线性回归、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波分析的方法探讨青藏高原1961—2019年降水量的变化特征。结论如下:(1)降水量整体上均呈现增长趋向,春冬季上升趋势最强,且春季降水对年降水量贡献率存在骤增现象。(2)春冬两季的降水量和年降水量的趋势检验均为显著增加,降水量分别于1996年、1982年和1998年起快速上升,夏秋两季检验结果不显著。(3)年降水量震荡最显著的周期为1 a,结果亦显示未来降水处于偏高期。研究显示:青藏高原降水量增加势头不变,春冬季降水量将持续增加并显著影响年降水量,全球需发展低碳经济以减缓冰川消融进程。

Study on the dynamic changes and future trend of precipitation in typical arid and semi-arid regions will help effectively cope with climate change.This paper analyzed the rainfal variation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2019 by applying the linear regression method,wavelet analysis method and the Mann-Kendall test method.The results are as follows:(1)Precipitation as a whole shows an increasing trend,with the obvious rising tendency in spring and winter and with the soaring contribution of spring rainfall amount to the annual one.(2)The trends in precipitation were increased significantly in both spring and winter seasons and the annual scale,and major rapid increasing shifts were detected during 1996,1982 and 1998 respectively,while there was no significant change in summer and autumn.(3)The annual precipitation fluctuation lasts for one year,and it turns out that the future precipitation will be at a higher level.The study shows that the precipitation in the plateau remains increasing,and spring and winter rain will continue to rise,contributing quite a lot to the annual precipitation,which shows a low-carbon economy should be developed to slow down the process of glacier melting.