基于新型冠状疫情病毒核酸混合检测的数学模型及其意义

Mathematical Model of New Coronavirus Nucleic Acid Mixed Detection

新型冠状病毒核酸混合检测指将采集到的多人核酸样本混合入同一检测管开展检测,降低检测时间和成本,提高核酸检测效率。混合检测法最早是在1943年美国为公共健康系统设计的方法。通过建立混合检验模型得知,当阳性率p等于0.3的时候,混合检测法平均需要的检测次数和逐一检测法需要的检测次数几乎一样。若p较大,每组的样本数应较少。若p较小,每组的样本数应较多。

New Coronavirus nucleic acid mixture detection means that the collected multi human nucleic acid samples are mixed into the same detection tube for testing,reducing the detection time and cost,and improv-ing the efficiency of nucleic acid detection.The mixed detection method was first designed for public health system in the United States in 1943.Through the establishment of the mixed test model,when the positive rate is equal to 0.3,the average number of tests required by the mixed test method is almost the same as that re-quired by the one by one test method.If it is smaller,the number of samples in each group should be larger.