基于GWR模型的贵州省耕地集约利用水平时空变化特征及影响因素分析

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Influencing Factors of Intensified Cultivated Land Use Level in Guizhou Province Based on GWR Model

为贯彻落实我国粮食安全战略,缓解贵州省人地矛盾,参考大量相关文献,结合贵州省实的际情况,从投入强度、利用程度、产出效益和持续状况4个方面,构建了具有14个二级指标的耕地集约水平评价模型,运用较为客观的均方差法对各指标赋予权重,分析了贵州省近16年来耕地集约度时空演变与空间分异特征,并运用GWR模型探寻其影响因子。结果表明:(1)贵州省2003—2018年耕地集约利用水平总体呈现上升趋势。(2)贵州省各市(州)耕地集约利用水平中,仅贵阳市的耕地集约水平逐渐下降,安顺市、六盘水市、黔东南州、遵义市4个地区稳步发展,其余地区略有波动。(3)通过GWR模型的分析发现,投入强度和持续状况是影响区内耕地集约利用水平的主要因素,利用程度地区分异较小,产出效益地区分异则较大。研究结果可为贵州省提升耕地集约利用水平提供科学参考。

For the implementation of the strategy of our country food security,easing the contradiction between human and land in Guizhou referring to a large number of relevant literature,combining with the Guizhou Province of the international situation,from the input intensity,utilization degree,production efficiency and the continuous condition of four aspects,with 14 indicators to jointly build the cultivated land intensive level evaluation system of Guizhou Province,using objective weights for each indicator given mean square error method,the spatial and temporal variations of cultivated land intensive level in Guizhou were analyzed,and the GWR model was used to analyze the factors affecting the level of intensive cultivated land of Guizhou Province.The results show that:(1)the intensive utilization of cultivated land in Guizhou Province from 2003 to 2018 showed the overall upward trend;(2)at the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in all cities(states)of Guizhou Province,the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in Guiyang City was the only one to decline gradually,while that of Anshun City,Liupanshui City,Qiandongnan Prefecture and Zunyi City was developing steadily,and that the rest of the areas had some fluctuations;(3)through the analysis of GWR model,it was found that the most important factors affecting the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in various cities(states)of Guizhou Province were the input intensity and sustainable status;the difference in utilization degree was small in regions,while the difference in output efficiency was large in regions.The results of this study can provide scientific reference for enhancing the intensive cultivated land use level in Guizhou Province.