基于熵权TOPSIS的河南省农业水土资源承载力时空分异与关联分析

Evaluation of Agricultural Soil-Water Resources Carrying Capacity(ASWCC)and Relation Analysis Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS in Henan Province

目前全球粮食生产面临巨大的挑战,作为我国重要的粮食输出大省,河南省的农业水土资源承载能力直接关系到我国的粮食安全。为客观反映河南农业水土资源承载力状况,通过构建熵权TOPSIS模型,对近10年河南省农业水土资源承载能力的时空动态变化做了定量研究,并对其影响因素进行了关联分析。结果表明:(1)2006—2018年,河南省农业水土资源承载力指数平均值0.266,承载力水平总体上升但波动较大,承载力指数最高值与最低值相差近1.26倍,除2018年外,绝大多数年份处于稳定水平;濮阳、焦作、鹤壁农业水土资源承载力年均增长速率较快,均超过9%;信阳和驻马店下降较多,年均分别下降8.49%和2.77%;(2)河南省农业水土资源承载力在空间上的分布规律为:豫北>豫南>豫东>豫西,其中郑州、新乡、信阳、商丘、许昌5市较高,开封、平顶山、漯河、鹤壁4市较低,研究时段内豫南农业水土资源承载力逐渐下降、豫北和豫东逐渐增高;(3)农作物受灾面积比例、本年度农林水利工程投资比例、废水处理率、农业水土资源匹配系数以及森林覆盖率是影响河南省农业水土资源承载力的主要因素。可见,为提升农业水土资源承载力,河南省应加强高标准基本农田建设,提高耕地的防灾抗灾能力,同时加大生态环境保护投入力度。

Global food production is facing enormous challenges,as one of the major agricultural provinces in China,the agricultural soil-water carrying capacity(ASWCC)in Henan Province is closely related to national food security.To provide support and reference for the sustainable development of agriculture in Henan,we took the entropy weight method and TOPSIS model to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of the ASWCC in Henan Province.The results showed that:(1)from 2006 to 2018,the average value of Henan′s ASWCC index was 0.266,and the overall level of carrying capacity showed the upward trend and fluctuated greatly;the highest value was nearly 1.26 times of the lowest value in terms of ASWCC;the most carrying capacity value was at the stable level except for 2018,the annual increasing rates of ASWCC in Puyang,Jiaozuo and Hebi were higner than 9%,and the ASWCC in Xinyang,Zhumadian decreased rapidly with annual decreasing rates of 8.49%and 2.77%;(2)during the study period,the distribution presented that the ASWCC decreased in the order:northern Henan>southern Henan>east Henan>western Henan;ASWCC in Zhengzhou,Xinyang,Xinxiang,Shangqiu and Xuchang were relatively high,while ASWCC in Luohe,Pingdingshan,and Kaifeng were relatively low;during the study period,the ASWCC in southern Henan was declineding,and the ASWCC in northern and eastern Henan had gotten better and higher;(3)relation analysis showed that the ASWCC was strongly affected by the proportion of crop disaster area(C_(9)),the investment ratio of agricultural and forestry water conservancy projects(C_(11)),the wastewater treatment rate(C_(6)),and the matching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources(C_(1)).In order to improve and maintain the stability of food production level,agricultural disaster resistance and increase of the investment in agriculture and environmental protection in Henan should be strengthened.