开放型通道经济发展模式视角下“西部陆海新通道”发展路径研究——基于国内省域分析和国际竞争互补关系分析

A study on the development path of“New Western Land-Sea Corridor” from the perspective of open channel economic development model: Based on the analysis of domestic provinces and international competitive complementary relationship

规划建设"西部陆海新通道"是"一带一路"倡议下中国推进陆海双向全面开放和区域协调发展的又一创举,"促进通道与区域经济融合发展"和"加强通道对外开放及国际合作"是"西部陆海新通道"发展的战略导向。文章将国内经济地理和国际经贸关系两个理论范畴进行有机结合,基于国内省域分析和国际竞争互补关系分析,探析"西部陆海新通道"建设的国内外经贸基础,提出了"西部陆海新通道"在开放型通道经济发展模式视角下的发展路径。首先,以点轴理论、国际贸易理论与新经济地理学为基础,构建起开放型通道经济发展模式的理论框架,研究认为"西部陆海新通道"的理论本质是对内形成西部开放发展聚合轴、对外促进中国—东盟区域一体化乃至衔接"一带一路"。其次,在开放型通道经济发展模式的理论视角下,立足国内尺度范畴,基于1987—2018年的省域进出口数据,分析"西部陆海新通道"地区开放水平的时空演变特征,同时,应用引力模型计算"西部陆海新通道"地区区域经济联系强度,结论表明,从西部开放经济的省域地区格局来看,西南地区对外开放水平整体居于优势地位,且西南各省份间经济联系紧密,依托"南向通道""陆海新通道"的"点—轴"空间发展形态日趋成熟;西北地区对外开放水平相对较低,且西北各省份之间、西北与西南省份之间的经济联系较弱,为"点—轴"空间形态延伸拓展的潜力方向。再次,立足国际尺度范畴,通过核算中国与东盟10国的2003—2018年贸易竞争指数、贸易互补指数、产业比较优势指数和产业互补指数四大指标及关系网络刻画,研究发现,中国与东盟国家间贸易竞争及互补关系共存,中国与新加坡、泰国、马来西亚、越南等东盟新兴经济体的经济结构接近,在出口方面存在较高的贸易竞争性但同时又有较高的贸易互补性,在钢铁、机械运输设备、纺织服装等领域水平分工的产业内贸易潜力较大;中国与文莱、缅甸、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝等东盟发展中国家的经济差距大,存在较低的贸易竞争性和较高的贸易互补性,在钢铁、机械运输设备、纺织品等领域垂直分工的产业间贸易潜力巨大。最终,提出空间融合扩展的全面开放路径、产业互补发展的协同增长路径、贸易物流发展的双向畅通路径和区域协调机制创建的政策沟通路径。

The planning and construction of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor” is another initiative of China to promote the two-way full opening of land-sea and regional coordinated development under the “the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st-Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative. “Promoting the integrated development of the corridor and regional economy” and “Strengthening the opening of the corridor and international cooperation” are the strategic directions for the development of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor”. In general, organically combining the two theoretical categories of domestic economic geography and international economic and trade relations, based on the analysis of domestic provinces and international competition and complementary relations, this paper explores the domestic and foreign economic and trade foundations for the construction of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor”, and puts forward the development paths of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor” from the perspective of the economic development model of the open corridor. First of all, based on the point-axis theory, international trade theories and the new economic geography, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the open corridor economic development model, it indicates that the theoretical essence of the “New Western Land-sea Corridor” is to internally form the western open development convergence axis, externally promote China-ASEAN regional integration and even link up the “Belt and Road”. Secondly, from the theoretical perspective of the open corridor economic development model, based on the domestic provincial import and export data from 1987 to 2018, it analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the opening level of covered area of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor”, and it applies the gravity model to calculate the strength of regional economic ties among covered area of the “New Western Land-Sea Corridor”, the conclusion shows that from the perspective of the provincial and regional pattern of the western open economy, the overall opening-up level of the southwestern region is in a dominant position, and the economic ties among the southwestern provinces are closer. The “point-axis” spatial development form based on the “Southbound Corridor” and “New Land-sea Corridor” is becoming more and more mature. The opening-up level of the northwestern region is relatively lower, and the economic ties among northwest provinces and between the northwest and the southwest are weaker, which is the potential direction for the extension and expansion of “point-axis” spatial form. Thirdly, based on the international scale, with calculating of the four indicators and relationship network description of trade competition index, trade complementarity index, industrial comparative advantage index and industrial complementarity index of China-ASEAN in 2003-2018, the study finds that trade competition and complementary relations coexist, the economic structures are similar, there are higher trade competitiveness and higher trade complementarity in exports, great potential of intra-industry trade with horizontal division in steel, machinery and transportation equipment, textiles and clothing and so on, between China and ASEAN emerging economies such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. There is big economic gap, lower trade competitiveness and higher trade complementarity, a huge potential for inter-industry trade in the vertical division in the fields of steel, machinery and transportation equipment, textiles and clothing and so on, between China and ASEAN developing countries such as Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos. Finally, it puts forward the comprehensive opening path of spatial integration and expansion, the coordinated growth path of industrial complementary development, the two-way smooth path of trade logistics development, and the policy communication path of regional coordination mechanism.