雾霾污染对人口迁移的影响效应研究——基于人口普查和1%抽样调查资料的分析

The Influence of Haze Pollution on Population Migration: An Analysis of National Population Census and 1% Sampling Survey

文章将雾霾污染卫星遥感数据与全国人口普查数据相结合,采用网络自相关和空间重力模型等方法,实证揭示了雾霾污染对人口迁移的影响。结果表明,(1)人口迁移存在明显的网络自相关效应,迁出地之间的空间集聚最为明显。(2)雾霾污染对人口迁入和人口迁出均存在显著的负向影响,雾霾污染每提高1%致使人口迁出和人口迁入分别下降0.297%和0.355%;收入水平和教育程度等因素是人口迁移中最显著拉力,高校生数量和气候等因素为人口迁移中最显著推力。(3)稳健性检验和异质性分析表明,雾霾污染对人口迁入和人口迁出均表现为显著的负向影响。基于此,雾霾污染并非当前人口迁移的关键动因,提高收入水平和教育程度仍是地区人才竞争中有力的杠杆,但随着"十四五"时期以人为核心的城镇化不断推进,雾霾污染将发挥更大的制约作用,应尽早关注雾霾污染给人口迁移带来的潜在挑战。

The paper, based on the data of national census and the satellite remote sensing of haze pollution, reveals empirically the impact of haze pollution on China’s inter-provincial population migration by the network autocorrelation and Spatial Gravity model. The results show that:1. Population migration has obvious network autocorrelation effect, and the spatial agglomeration is the most obvious;2. Haze pollution has a significant negative impact on both population immigration and population emigration, for every 1% increase of haze pollution results in the decrease of 0.297% and 0.355% in population emigration and immigration respectively;3. Income and education are the most significant pulling forces, and the number of college students and climate are the most significant pushing forces in migration;4.Robustness test and heterogeneity analysis showed that haze pollution has significant negative effects on different types of population migration. Haze pollution is not the key driving force of current population migration, and improving income and education level is still the most powerful lever in regional competition to attract talents and population immigration. However, with the continuous advancement of human centered urbanization in the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, haze pollution may play a more restrictive role in migration. The potential challenges of haze pollution to population migration should be studied continually.