基于Biomod2组合模型的中国野生芍药Paeonia lactiflora适宜生境分布

Applying Biomod2 for modeling of species suitable habitats:a case study of Paeonia lactiflora in China

芍药Paeonia lactiflora是我国重要的药用资源,为了加强对芍药的野生资源保护和适宜性引种栽培,该研究基于野生芍药在中国的98个分布信息和20个当前环境因子数据,利用Biomod2平台和ArcGIS空间分析方法,分析了当前气候条件下野生芍药的潜在适宜生境分布区,依据环境因子相关性和重要性筛选出影响野生芍药潜在适宜生境的主要环境因子。继而基于BCC-CSM2-MR全球气候模型,预测在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5气候情景下,未来2021—2100年野生芍药的潜在适宜生境分布范围及中心变化。结果表明:通过集成表现较好的GBM、GLM、MaxEnt、RF模型所形成的组合模型,其TSS和AUC分别为0.85、0.95,较单一模型都有显著提高,可有效提高模型精度。20个环境因子中,年均温、昼夜温差月均值、温度的季节性、最暖季平均温、最湿月降雨量、降雨的季节性、最干季降雨量和海拔是影响适宜区分布的主要因子。目前野生芍药潜在适宜区分布在内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河北、北京、陕西、山西、山东、甘肃、新疆、西藏、宁夏等省份,集中于内蒙古东北部、黑龙江中部、吉林北部。在未来气候情景下,野生芍药高适宜区持续缩减,潜在适宜生境主要呈现不同程度的丧失情况,但在SSP5-8.5条件下,到2061—2100年阶段,野生芍药低适宜区在中国西部的新疆、西藏、青海等省份的高原和山地地区出现部分新增。野生芍药分布中心呈现先向东北后向西南迁移的趋势,总适宜区分布范围相对稳定,保持在高纬度地带。该研究确定了野生芍药的潜在适宜生境分布变化,对未来加强生境保护与规范种植生产具有重要意义。

Paeonia lactiflora is an important medicinal resource in China.It is of great significance for the protection and cultivation of P.lactiflora resources to find the suitable habitats.The study was based on the information of 98 distribution sites and the data of 20 current environmental factors of wild P.lactiflora in China.According to the correlation and importance of environmental factors,we selected the main environmental factors affecting the potential suitable habitats.Then,BCC-CSM2-MR model was employed to predict the distribution range and center change of potential suitable habitat of wild P.lactiflora in the climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 during 2021—2100.The ensemble model combined with GBM,GLM,MaxEnt,and RF showed improved prediction accuracy,with TSS=0.85 and AUC=0.95.Among the 20 environmental factors,annual mean temperature,monthly mean diurnal range of temperature,temperature seasonality,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,precipitation of the wettest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of the driest quarter,and elevation were the main factors that affected the suitable habitat distribution of P.lactiflora.At present,the potential suitable habitats of wild P.lactiflora is mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Hebei,Beijing,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Shandong,Gansu,Xinjiang,Tibet,and Ningxia,and concentrated in the northeastern Inner Mongolia,central Heilongjiang,and northern Jilin.Under future climate conditions,the highly sui-table area of wild P.lactiflora will shrink,and the potential suitable habitat will mainly be lost to different degrees.However,in the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the low suitable area of wild P.lactiflora will partially increase in the highlands and mountains in western China including Xinjiang,Tibet,and Qinghai during 2061—2100.The distribution center of wild P.lactiflora migrated first to the northeast and then to the southwest.The total suitable habitats were stable and kept in the high-latitude zones.The prediction of the potential geo-graphical distribution of P.lactiflora is of great significance to the habitat protection and standardized cultivation of this plant in the future.