湖南省武陵山片区县域流通产业发展的演化特征及影响因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Counties Circulation Industry in Mount Wuling of Hunan Province

加速县域流通产业发展是巩固产业脱贫成效、助推乡村振兴的重要途径。基于湖南省武陵山片区37个县(市、区)2001—2019年数据,利用修正的引力模型、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和空间计量模型,探索了县域流通产业发展的时空分异特征及其影响因素。研究发现:县域流通产业总体规模扩大但区域发展极不均衡,呈现东南高—西北低的空间格局;流通经济联系度(量)不断上升,"增长极(冷水江)—最弱极(古丈)"特征明显;流通产业具有显著空间集聚特性,局部集聚态势减弱但两极分化明显;劳动力、技术进步、政府扶持和城镇化对县域流通产业发展具有显著正向空间溢出效应,市场需求的促进作用有待提高,产业结构升级和资本对周边县域流通产业发展产生负外溢性。

Accelerating the development of circulation industry in counties is an important way to consolidate the effectiveness of poverty alleviation and promote rural revitalization. Based on the data of 37 counties and cities in the Mount Wuling of Hunan Province from 2001 to 2019, the modified gravity model, exploratory ESDA analysis and and spatial panel metrological model are introduced to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of circulation industry in counties and its influencing factors.The study finds that: The scale of circulation industry in counties is expanding,but it is uneven in the regional development, which shows the overall pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The circulation economic connection degree(quantity) rises unceasingly, and presents the obvious characteristics of "the growth pole(Lengshuijiang)-the weakest pole(Guzhang)" in counties. There is significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of circulation industry in counties, also the degree of local agglomeration is weakened and the two levels of differentiation are obvious. In term of the influencing factors,the labor force,technological progress,the support of government and urbanization have a positive spatial spillover effect on the circulation industry of districs. The role of market demand in promoting the development of the circulation industry in counties needs to be improved. The role of capital and the adjustment of the industrial structure have a negative spillover effect on the development of the circulation industry in the surrounding counties.