中国城市群经济增长质量与数量协调关系的时空演化与机理

The Spatio-temporal Evolution and Mechanism of the Coordination Between Quality and Quantity of Economic Growth in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

以中国“十三五”规划纲要提及的19个城市群为研究对象,分别从经济效率、经济结构、经济稳定性、经济发展潜力、成果分配、资源环境、民生福利7个维度刻画城市群经济增长质量,从GDP增长率和人均GDP两个维度刻画经济增长数量以构建综合指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、地理探测器等方法,剖析2006—2018年中国城市群经济增长质量与数量的耦合协调关系及其相互作用机理,研究结果表明:①总体协调水平上,中国城市群经济增长质量与数量的协调度较低,且呈下降趋势;②协调度空间格局上,经济增长质量与增长数量、增长速度的空间格局呈现“东高西低”的趋势,且保持相对稳定,但经济增长质量与增长规模的协调度空间格局差异较大;③协调类型上,“数量滞后”型呈零星分布,“规模滞后”型向中西部集聚,“速度滞后”型向东北拓展,“质量滞后”型表现出多样性特征;④经济增长质量与规模、速度的协调关系表现出不一致的特征;⑤相互协调机理分析发现,民生福利、经济发展潜力、人均GDP对中国城市群经济增长质量与数量协调水平的提升具有显著影响。⑥针对不同协调类型的城市群应分别采取相应举措以助力中国城市群经济高质量发展。

The aticle sets urban agglomerations which the Chinese 13 th Five-year Plan outline referred to as the research objects, respectively from the economic efficiency, economic structure, economic stability, economic development potential, results distribution, resources and environment, the welfare of the people’s livelihood seven dimensions of urban agglomeration economy growth quality characterization, from growth rate of GDP and per capita GDP of two dimension depicting economic growth to build a comprehensive index system.Using the methods of entropy value method, coupling coordination model, geodetector and so on, we analyze the coupling coordination between quality and quantity of economic growth in China from 2006 to 2018 and its interaction mechanism. The results showed that: 1) As for the overall level, the coordination degree between quality and quantity of economic growth in China’s urban agglomerations is low, and shows a downward trend;2) In terms of the spatial pattern of coordination degree, the spatial pattern of the quality of economic growth with the quantity of economic growth and the speed of economic growth showed a trend of “high in the east and low in the west” and remained relatively stable, but the spatial pattern of coordination degree of the quality and scale of economic growth changed greatly;3) In terms of coordination types, the “quantity lag” type distributed sporadically, the “scale lag” type is concentrated in the central and western regions, the “speed lag”type is expanded in the northeast, and the “quality lag” type showed diversity due to the different coordination objects;4) The coordination among the quality of economic growth and the scale of economic growth and speed of economic growth shows a feature of not accordance;5) The analysis of mutual coordination mechanism shows that the welfare of the people’s livelihood, economic development potential and per capita GDP have a significant and important influence on the improvement of the coordination level of economic growth quality and quantity in 19 China’s urban agglomerations;6) It explains the key measures to be taken by different coordinated urban agglomerations, so as to help the high-quality economic development of 19 China’s urban agglomerations.